When planning goes out of the window and reacting is everything
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Strategy Report
Posted By: James Allen  |  27 Nov 2012   |  11:38 am GMT  |  154 comments

The Brazilian Grand Prix was a rollercoaster of a race, with positions and fortunes changing from lap to lap as intermittent rain caused chaos. Sebastian Vettel managed to survive a first lap collision, a broken radio and four pitstops to fight back from 17th place on lap one to sixth at the end to secure the points he needed to win the world championship for the third time.

Fernando Alonso, meanwhile, went from seventh on the grid to second at the end, but did not have the pace in the Ferrari to challenge Jenson Button for the win, which would have given him the points to clinch the title.

With conditions so hard to predict and so changeable this was a day when the strategists were reacting to events and working on instinct. For some, with nothing to lose, it was worth taking a gamble on a tyre choice. For the two title contenders it was all about being certain to be there at the chequered flag with as many points as possible.

The race fell into three distant phases. The early laps when it began to rain and a decision needed to be made whether to pit for intermediate tyres or stay out on dry tyres. A middle part of the race when everyone was on dry tyres, and then the final 20 laps in the rain, when everyone moved to intermediates.


Pre-race expectations

Rain had been forecast for race day all week. However, in the hours before the race the chance of rain was receding from 80% to 40%, as teams faced up to the possibility of a dry race and very different conditions from practice and qualifying.

The key factor was always going to be the temperature, it was cool on race day, but if the temperature kept rising it would mean more thermal degradation on the tyres and therefore more pit stops.

There were three cars out of position; Maldonado in 16th after his penalty for missing a weight check, Grosjean in 18th after hitting de la Rosa in qualifying and arguably Rosberg, who had overqualified in the Mercedes in 9th place and was set to fall back in the race.

Indications were that teams would go for a two stop strategy with the first stop around lap 20-25 with a middle stint on a new set of hard tyres and then review performance before deciding whether to switch to used mediums for the last stint or another set of new hards.

However the track conditions before the rain began were different from Friday practice where the track temperature was almost 50 degrees, compared to less than half that on race day. So even without rain, teams were set for a reactive strategy.

Once again Pirelli’s tyre choice had been conservative, the Italian firm opting for the hard and medium tyres because of several high energy corners. The hard tyre was well out of its optimum working range in the 50 degree track temperatures during Friday practice and there were signs of blistering. But on race day with lower temperatures, the hard tyres were better suited.

Going into the race, only Di Resta of the leading cars had a new set of mediums left, while Ferrari only had one new set of hard tyres, compared to the two new sets of Red Bull and McLaren. The Ferrari also had a deficit of around 0.3s to 0.4s in pure car pace to deal with. The team had split its long run tests on Friday, with Massa running the medium and Alonso the hard tyres, so they had plenty of data on which to base their strategy. It was clear that they favoured the medium tyre on race day as they and Lotus were the ones to move onto it in the dry.


Button and Hulkenberg take a chance

The conditions in the early part of the race were difficult, but the teams were ready to react as far as strategy decisions were concerned. The key strategy call was to stay out when rain started to fall in the early stages with the dry tyres, but few teams were able to do that, as they could not generate enough temperature in the tyres.

Several teams split the strategies at this point, around lap 10; putting one driver onto intermediates and leaving the other on slicks. Red Bull put Webber onto intermediates, for example and then switched Vettel onto them a lap later. For McLaren Hamilton went onto the intermediates, but Button resisted.

There was a brief moment in this phase when it looked like Button and Nico Hulkenberg were on the wrong tyre, with the slick. But then drivers who went onto the intermediate tyres too early suffered from graining. So it swung back Hulkenberg and Button’s way and when the drivers who had switched to intermediates were forced to pit again around lap 18-20, it left Button and Hulkenberg over 40 seconds clear of the field, having made no stops compared to the two made by the others.

It is worth noting that Force India has something of a track record on tricky wet days like this of copying what Button does, as he has an uncanny knack of being on the right tyre at the right time and there have been several occasions when Force India has matched his moves and got a strong result.

In this instance both Button and Hulkenberg were able to get sufficient temperature into the tyres to deal with the water on the track, although there was a thin dry line for most of the early stages of the race. This made overtaking difficult because off line there was no grip and several cars went straight on instead of out-braking their rivals.

It was only later that the track became fully wet, after lap 50, when the whole field went for intermediates.

The decisive moment of the race was the deployment of the safety car on lap 23 due to the debris on the track, which had led to a puncture for Nico Rosberg. This greatly helped Hamilton, Alonso, Vettel, Webber and others who had lost ground early on through pit stops and spins. It wiped out the lead of Button and Hulkenberg and brought Hamilton into their battle, which ultimately led to the collision between Hulkenberg and Hamilton.

The pair had no choice but to pit under the safety car and retain their lead, but with a bunched up field behind.

Incidentally, in phase two of the race, around laps 18-20, when everyone moved back onto dry tyres, Ferrari and Lotus went for the medium tyre while most went for the hard. For most, this was a hedge in case they needed to go to the finish on that set of tyres, with over 40 laps remaining.

Lotus were prepared to go to the end on the mediums, given their better tyre usage, but Ferrari would have struggled as they suffered obvious graining on the surface of the front tyres.

Most F1 strategists said after the race that it was relatively clear what was the right move to make at each phase of the race, but what prevented more of them from copying Button and Hulkenberg was confidence that they could generate the tyre temperature.

Button is a past master at these situations, but it was interesting to note, once again as in Brazil qualifying in 2010, that Hulkenberg has the knack too. It was regrettable that he lost control of the car trying to pass Hamilton later in the race – and took a drive through penalty as a result – as it overshadowed an otherwise exceptional performance and great strategic reaction.

TYRE STRATEGIES

N=new:U=used;M=Medium;H=Hard;Dt=drivethrough penalty

Button: MU HN (23) IN (57) 2 Stops
Alonso: MU IN (10) MU (18) IN (56) 3
Massa: MU IN (15) MU (19) IN (55) 3
Webber: MU IN (9) HU (19) IN (55) 3
Hülkenberg: MU HN (23) IN (57) DT (58) 3
Vettel: MU IN (10) HN (19) MU (52) IN (54) 4
Schumacher: HN HN (5) IN (8) HN (17) IN (54) 4
Vergne: MN IN (15) HN (20) HN (29) IN (56) 4
Kobayashi: HN IN (8) HN (18) IN (54) 3
Räikkönen: MU IN (5) MU (19) IN (53) 3
Petrov: MN IN (14) HN (19) IN (54) 3
Pic: MN IN (13) MU (20) IN (55) 3
Ricciardo: MN IN (9) HN (19) HN (51) IN (56) WN (61) 5
Kovalainen: MN IN (15) MU (19) HN (37) IN (56) WN (59) 5
Rosberg: MU IN (9) HN (18) HN (20) IN (50) 4
Glock: MN IN (14) MU (19) HN (31) IN (56) 4
De La Rosa: MU IN (14) MU (19) HN (50) IN (55) 4
Kartikeyan: MU IN (13) HN (20) HN (51) IN (55) 4
Di Resta: MN IN (10) HN (18) IN (57) 3

Hamilton: MU IN (10) HN (18) 2
Grosjean: HN 0 NC
Maldonado: MU 0 NC
Senna: MN 0 NC
Perez: MU 0 NC

RACE HISTORY, courtesy of Williams F1 Team

Note: The dips in the middle and at the end of the graph are the safety car periods. This raises the average lap time of the race, hence why many of the dry racing laps are above the zero (average) line.

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1

James,

Since Hulkenberg was ahead isn’t it Button who copied his strategy and not the other way around?

2

I don’t get this Button ‘mastery’ in changing conditions. He makes ‘a call’ usually at odds with the other drivers purely because he might as well take a chance. It’ll not work most likely as often as it does. It may have been luck that brought HAM back into play after the safety car but I distinctly heard BUTs radio message to the team “It’s stopped raining” which suggests that no sooner had many drivers switched to inters, the rain stopped. It could have gotten heavier, but it didn’t so my argument is, if it’s luck that bought HAM back into play after the safety car, it’s also luck that the rain stopped just after HAM and others had switched to inters.

I know there’s a place in F1 for consistent drivers just as there is for racers but I can’t help thinking that BUT tends to profit only when others suffer misfortune or a throw of the dice that, when it pays off, looks like a supreme strategy call.

3

See how wide Daniel went to avoid Vettel?

The bubonic teutonic Helmut risk factor at work.

4

Great analysis

You could see the pressure with the unusual amount of mistakes so many teams seemed to make

Ferrari though (while disappointed), must be somewhat happy that they managed to avoid any massive strategy blunders like 2010

5

Thank you James for another year of informative, intelligent commentary and articles.

Looking forward to 2013 and your column.

All the best and have a nice break from the mayhem !

6

James is there a chance u can explain to us what went wrong with mercedes in this season? and why they were good in qualifiying and so bad in the race? is it all related to the double DRS and the extended use in quali? i read plenty of articles trying to figure out the main reason behind this issue but i couldnt get to a conclusion! Ross B said once that Mercedes shall work out a better “infrastructure” for 2013!? is the impact on tyre performance was mainly related to the aerodynamics of the car? or things like weight distribution, suspension and driving style are the upper hand impact… what was really meant by infrastructure???

7

James does the timing not point to the possibility Button and Hulkenberg were running more wing than the field. It looked to me in the very early running Hamilton was able to make the pole work for him but as conditions deteriorated Button and Hulkenberg were able to catch and pass Hamilton. This would also explain the why he was not able to get the inters to work for him as he was not confident in the car setup. After the SC when they were all on hards it appears the less tricky conditions again suited Hamilton and with his confidence restored he was able to pass both driver. Again looking at timing as conditions changed for the worse Hulkenberg and Button were again able to catch Hamilton fairly easily. It would have been nice to see the three of them on inters to see who would have won that match up. I suspect Hamilton would end up third with Hulkenberg on the top step.

8

Hi James, I’ve just read this and I really can believe the Red Bull double standards:

Red Bull thanks ‘gracious’ Schumacher for giving Vettel sixth http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/104626

Can you please tell me what your view on this is?

People (Red Bull included) is always bashing Ferrari for taking their strategic decision within their own team. Meanwhile we have the Toro Rossos giving way to Vettel at every opportunity, and now we even have Michael Schumacher, a 7 world champion who drives for Mercedes, a rival team of Red Bull giving way too. Red Bull not only denies it but even publicly say thanks for the “gesture”. What is the view on this? In any other sport (Football, Olympics, whatever) this would be called game fixing. Is the FIA going to take any action?

9

It’s up to Schunwhatnhendoes. He didntbwantbto get involved, he said. RBR didn’t ask for it so where’s the “fix”?

10

I cannot agree with you here James. He didn’t want to get involved? Well, this is supposed to be motor RACING and that is what he is paid for by Mercedes right? To try as hard as he can to get as many points as possible, even with defensive driving if needed.

Same applies to the situation with Toro Rosso. We sit in front of the TV to watch these guys race, not to watch a charade. What if Petrov had done the same in Abu Dhabi 2010 and said afterwards that “he didn’t want to get involved”? What would have been the reaction then?

Anyway, I can agree it is a thin line, but what I cannot accept is Red Bull giving lessons of racing purity with that holier than thou attitude and claiming “dirty tricks from others” and then being hypocrite to the point of saying thanks to Schumacher for his nice gesture. I cannot understand how Ferrari gets some much criticism and Red Bull gets away with this kind of things.

11

MASSA, Why are you crying, why are you crying… in fact you Felipe Massa, should be ashame of your self, you are not a Formula one driver, shame on you…. playing the role of support, or team member is not a racer, you don’t have a gram of diginity in you, Alonso is faster than you, will follow you for the rest of your life.

Now Webber in the other hand did a much better job, protecting his position at turn one, even if it meant to block his own team mate, he is a reacer, it may cost him his job next year, but a person has only his dignity, his word, and nothign else, of course money can not buy those things… Massa will be remembered as a poor man with Zero dignity, and shame on FIA for allowing this parody… and I may be out of line here, but money can’t buy me…. it can buy Massa, Toro Roso and some others.. and in this case, Mclarens are a team with some integrty (my opinion)

12

Fully agree

13

@James Allen: right, then I would like to know what your view is.

@Steve We cannot know if they asked for it, or even if it is something prearranged. But my point is: did you see the Brazil drivers press conference and the questions that Alonso had to face from British media about “tainted results” for the gearbox saga in Austin? It was exactly the same after Germany 2010. That for Ferrari decisions within their own TEAM (that is why they are called teams).

What is beyond my comprehension is why Schumacher, Toro Rosso and Red Bull do not get at least the same criticism for favoring one competitor in detriment of another. For me that is just not fair racing.

@Warren Gronewald: that is exactly my point, then why Schumacher is not slammed in the same way? Not even he is not, he is publicly acknowledged by Red Bull, appalling.

You are spot on, a very bad taste in my mouth too, I love F1, but these are the kind of things that from time to time make me wonder is this so-called sport is worth following.

14
Warren Groenewald

Very true about Petrov, but then he most likely would have been slammed afterwards for letting Alonso through.

Watching so many drivers basically fall over themselves to get out of Vettels way though left a bad taste in my mouth.

15

It’s kind of a difficult situation to do anything about though. I mean you can’t really penalize Red Bull because they didn’t ask for it and what are the FIA or Mercedes going to do to Michael, suspend him?

16

I’m just stating what he said by way of explanation. I’m not expressing a view on it

17

You are perfectly right, James. There is nothing wrong with this- Schumacher can choose to fight for position (force Rubens on the wall) or graciously allow another car to pass by. I was thinking about it during the race – what if Button did the same to Alonso? It would have never happened, I know…but it is important, apparently, to have many friends in F1 and not many enemies.

I do not know teams and drivers and their relationship and so I cannot tell who has more friends and more respect – Vettel or Alonso. Maybe even Vettel for what Alonso did in the past (crash gate, spy gate). I think the reason why Alonso cannot win the title despite being considered a better driver is because of what he did in the past. There is something beyond mechanical and aero grip…

18

well glock let hamilton through in 08 and he won his championship…this sort of thing is bound to happen in championship deciding races.

19

James,

Was it wet enough at the end for full wets?

I’m thinking maybe if Ferrari had gambled around -12 laps they would have found themselves eating up Button’s lead in big chunks. Of course Jenson would have covered if it worked but…

Just a fantasy. After Abu-Dhabi 2010 they were never going to take such a bold gamble.

20

Ricciardo was apparently on full wets. Did not work.

21

For those who still doubt Vettel, you have to hand it to him in this race. He did after all drive part of the first lap backwards and still won the championship. 😉

22

Neil,

You mean Vettel did great because he overtook 2 HRT, 2 Marussia, 2 Caterham, 2 toro Rosso,2 Germans (schumacher + Glock), plus 5 cars that crashed (Hamilton, Maldonado, Senna, Grosjean & Perez). So who did he really overtook? Rosberg and Raikkonen destroyed their own race, so that leaves Kobayashi and Di Resta (who also crashed). In the meantime he was hesitant at the start of the race, he may be responsible for the first lap crashand overtook with yellow flags. That’s what I call a worthy champion.

23

Jenson once again demonstrates supreior nous in racecraft and skill: he thinks of the bigger picture, unlike some others including Hamilton and Vettel – who get involved in unnecessary incidents. Especially for Hamilton who has had three incidents this season: an improvement on last season but needs to iron out this weakness if he wants to be a mulitple world champion. In this respect, he’s nowhere close in racecraft/strategy compared to the likes of Button, Riakkonnen, Alonso and not even Vettel.

24

Guys, can you help me understand, how many cars did Sebastian overtake in the race?

I am puzzled:-)

So his best overtaking maneuvers (just personal opinion) where on Webber, Vergbne, Ricciardo and Schumacher.

I actually love the article (interview with Horner) on how Sebastian fought for P6:

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/104626

25

Perhaps Dietrich Mateschitz should really sell Toro Rosso away 🙂

26

Great race report James, possibly the best yet. I rarely watch an entire race through twice but I did this time and the article really adds depth and understanding.

Little seems to have been made generally of Grosjean’s off and the footage I have seen is not great but it seemed quite a big impact and probably self-inflicted. Do you think Lotus’ patience could now be expiring and does Valsecchi perhaps have an outside chance after his impressive test?

28

Davide Valsecchi is Italian.

Grosjean is French. Éric Boullier (Lotus team principle) manages Grosjean. French oil company Total sponsor Lotus.

The back-story from JA is here

http://jaonf1.wpengine.com/2011/08/romain-grosjean-wins-gp2-title-and-knocks-on-formula-1s-door/

29
Warren Groenewald

Lotus are powered by French engine manufacturer Renault ….

30

I recall the story you cite but, with respect, it is over a year old. Lotus now has an entire season of Grosjean’s services upon which to reflect, nineteen races of more recent, first-hand and potentially unpersuasive evidence upon which to base its decisions.

Boulier is only part of the Lotus decision-making structure and Total only one of its stakeholders. Coca-Cola, for example, is now a bigger player. Also, Total will have a French driver, Pic, on board next year via Caterham.

Grosjean’s speed is undeniable and he has an agreeable public persona but his accidents, though not all his fault, are damaging in terms of points, finances, image and relations both within the sport and with its governance. Lotus surely has to be looking at its options.

31

James – can you clarify the rule regarding Maldonado’s penalty? Why would the FIA weigh someone in the middle of a qualifying session?

32

Vettel passed JEV under Yellow flag (this is NOT the red/yellow/slippery surface flag-Sauber pass that has already been incorrectly identified as pass under yellow)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFER0esusF0#t=09m32s

33

Andrew Benson says he is shortly to write a story on the subject of a possible Ferrari protest

http://twitter.com/andrewbensonf1/status/273903422347018240

34

To all,

Vettel’s overtakes are clearly explained in the thread Steve provided earlier.

Read the whole thread: http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/groups/f1/forum/topic/youtube-analysis-vettels-yellow-flag-overtakes/

35

As users have pointed out in the vids comments, there’s a marshall’s post right after the pit exit. That marshall is waving a green flag. Light posts don’t have precedence over flags.

36

“Light posts don’t have precedence over flags”

Please provide a link to this rule, I’m interested

The yellow flag is clearly displayed on SV dash as he passes Verne

37

Fireman, thanks for the link, however just read and I do no not agree with your conclusion:

“Signals are given in daylight by different coloured flags, which may be supplemented or replaced by lights”

if the man waving the green flag existed (I have not been able to find him on lap 4) then, if you assume that Vettel was able to see him but not the yellow lights on the circuit or his dashboard, the question is still out there, what takes precedent!?

38

Signal lights are supplementary as Appendix H describes: http://www.fia.com/sport/Regulations/f1regs.html

39

Incorrect. That marshall was there on lap 3 but not on lap 4, which is when the incident took place.

40

Blah blah blah. Forget about lights and flags. Teams know the rules better than all of us. Why did Toro Rosso leave a gap of 17+ seconds behind the SC? THAT explains it all. If anyone finds a reasonable answer to the 1Million dollar question then we are good. If not, this will be remembered as a shameful season with an illegal winner. Full stop.

PS1: Fans here in the US are shocked to see a sport with different rules and marshall decisions depending on your nationality/sponsor. F1 is no longer a sport, but luckily there are other motor sport options.

PS2: Ferrari’s Austin decision was legal. As legal as the million of times a Toro Rosso (“Red Bull” in Italian, so funny) lets another team pass them. Team orders are also legal.

41

No, he’s there with green flag also on lap 4.

42

I don’t know or care where he was. He was not there when Vettel passed on lap 4.

The rules are valid for everyone, right?

43

So that marshal just vaporized in between laps?

44

It is pretty clear and was mentioned during live commentary so I’m baffled why it wasn’t investigated at the time. I’m even more amazed that none of the rival teams, Ferrari in particular, raised an objection. Apart from the overtake, it is quite clear that Vettel made no attempt to lift for the yellow. As a marshal, I take a very dim view of drivers who ignore yellow flags; has someone got to get killed or injured before they are enforced more strongly?

45

The pass being referred to in the video as being illegal (not the first two which the poster clears and the FIA has already looked at) was not mentioned on the telecast as far as I know.

I know the sky guys ran with one of those for pretty much the entire race before admitting they were wrong.

46

P Alliot, thanks for the footage. I think you are right about the FIA flag/lights rules and clearly Vettel overtakes the third time under yellow lights conditions…illegal pass!

Certainly the FIA didn’t look at the matter and anyone complained in a timely matter. Even a post-race penalty (9.4s+20s=29.4s) could have move Vettel down to 8th behind Vergne (+28.6), leaving Seb with just 4 points to add to his tally. Wow, that could have meant a different 3-time WDC!!!

47

Without taking anything away from the great driving ability of the young 3x champion, it’s quite remarkable to see how many cars are keen to jump out of his way.

This is mainly evident from watching SV’s onboard footage. The two STR cars, Timo Glock and MSC are particularly noticeable.

48

At the end the only way for Alonso to win the tittle was for Vettel to crash out for good, think about it, Vettel had 3 other team mates plus the german contingent (Glock,Schumacher and potentially Rosberg), asumming he is able to take over the HRT, Marussia and Catherham, that makes it 12 cars already behind him even before he starts, a couple of other cars having incidents (maldonado, perez, etc) and he is already scoring points… not much to be proud of.

Why everybody focuses on Alonso getting help from Massa and nobody looks at the Red Bull / Toro Rosso / German conspiracy…

49

It doesn’t matter really. No matter what he did in that race he wasn’t going to get a penalty, otherwise they would’ve given him one for being completely unaware & chopping across Senna.

Having a championship like this one decided by a drive-through would reflect badly on F1, something the stewards were obviously acutely aware of.

50

Nobody cares to explain, even James.

51

JEV slowed down substantially. No issue.

52

The Torro Rosso is clearly slowing with an apparent “problem”, I believe passing is permitted under that circumstance. I’m sure Vettel wouldn’t have been aware that Vergne’s “problem” was Helmut Marko screaming in his ear 🙂

54

The person who wrote this post notes: “As I say I may have this wrong …”

And he does.

http://argent.fia.com/web/fia-public.nsf/E8E85FF013BD3333C1257AA20026386C/$FILE/12.10.23_ANNEXE%20H.pdf

55

He passes the marshal’s green flag before he overtakes anyway.

56

As pointed out on the comments to the video the board where he makes that third pass is actually green, the two in the previous section were blinking yellow.

57

Oh and there is a marshal on the left waving a green flag at the start of the straight to boot, hilarious.

Maybe there will be a fourth incident upset Ferrari fans can dig up to claim Vettel overtook under yellows?

58

I am an Alonso fan, but in Vettel’s defence, as I highlighted in a post above, this is merely down to an error from race control. Vettel enters the yellow flag zone and then passes the incident on the outside of turn 3. He then passes a marshal’s post which is waving a green flag, however, the electronic display board after this is still yellow. To my knowledge, flags take presidence over the electronic signs, so therefore no penalty (However, whether he could see the flag in those conditions is questionable).

59

The sporting regulations don’t mention the dash lights at all, they are just a drivers aid – the regulations all refer to the marshal’s directions as final.

The marshal on the left is waving a green flag.

60

I’m not a Ferrari fan, Steve. Quite the opposite.

When SV passes JEV the lights on SV dash clearly indicate yellow flag.

61

Look at his display. He has yellow leds=not overtaking, so the pass was illegal. End of story.

62

I think the Force India team is only complaining because they lost the P1 which by the way they were fortunate to be in.

With the amount of debris on the track, i dont think a mere yellow flag can slow the cars down for the marshals to clear the track considering poor visibility. I believe it was a good call by the stewards.

63

….and thank you to formula1.com for their live timing as without it we would have had headaches trying to workout what was going on.

I love when sport makes you nervous like the race did on Sunday. the only other one that does that for me is football in tight finals or david vs goliath games like Barca v Celtic recently. However F1 can do it multiple times a year.

God bless Formula One!!!

64

The takeaway for Pirelli for 2013 should be: pick very aggressive or very conservative tyres because they have produced some awesome races.

65

Great article. I like the comment about Force India tracking Button – makes a lot of sense in those conditions. The only problem is that they didn’t take quite enough notice. If they had commanded the Hulk to follow a bit more precisely he would have finished on the podium!

By that I don’t mean in Button’s tracks precisely but that of Button’s willingness to lose a place rather than risk retirement by being slightly too aggressive. Hulkenburg would have had many more much safer chances to overtake Hamilton whilst backing out of confrontation would still have given him a better result than most believed possible. Button’s risk aversion is what gave him a deserved victory.

Come to think of it is there any other driver who gets near Button’s ratio of wet to dry race wins?

66

I also liked the Button-Force India comment, definitely something to watch in 2013.

67

Most wins in rain-affected races since the end of the era of Schumacher/Ferrari domination (i.e. 2005 on):

6: Button

4: Alonso

3: Raikkonen

3: Hamilton

3: Massa

3: Vettel

1: Schumacher

1: Webber

68

haha – very funny about Panis!

However… I wrote ratio – as in one thing compared to another – so I don’t think a zero for dry wins makes for a legitimate comparison.

Using your figures above gives:

Button 6 15 40%

Alonso 4 30 13%

Raikonnen 3 19 16%

Lewis 3 21 14%

Massa 3 11 27%

Vettel 1 26 4%

which as I expected means Button is way out in front for wet weather skills… with Massa next and Vettel last.

69

Olivier Panis springs to mind!

70
Alberto Martínez

So James, with hindsight can we conclude that the Ferrari strategy of using the Medium tyre would have been a big mistake in case there were no more rain?

Also I realized that in the early laps of the race Massa tried replicate the strategy used by Button and Hulkenberg, but with no success as he had to enter for intermediates. Was it related to tyre temperature?

I don´t understand how the Ferrari was so good in wet race this year (Malasya, Silverstone, …) and they were nowhere in this race. Seems like the upgrades made by Ferrari changed the ability the car had to heat the tyres. Could you research on this please?

71

We’ll never know, but I think others would have gone to the finish so they would have had to try it.

72

Wow. What a difference in performance of BUT and HUL form the rest of the field between laps 15 – 22. And look at where MSC was during that period (and a bit earlier) and where he ended up in the end. Fantastic race.

All this analysis of strategies and statistics and graphs is like the thrill of the race is extended for a couple of more days. Great work James once more.

73

I watched the race on the UK’s Sky F1 and they showed a clip of Vettel (possibly) passing Kobayashi under a yellow flag, yet I’ve not seen any mention of it in other news outlets.

James was there any news in the paddock if this was looked at or not? It seems like it could have had a big impact on the title race.

74

It was a flashing yellow/green apparently (or supposed to be) meaning ‘slippery track’ if I recall correctly.

75

Sky F1 got this one completely wrong because they both missed that it was blinking yellow and that he passed a board that was green before the actual move.

I know they stuck to their guns on this throughout the entire telecast but they were completely wrong.

76

As elsewhere I got this slightly backwards, the key bit was that they entered a green sector as the overtake occurred and then it was immediately followed by a sector that was yellow but *not* blinking.

77

During the race it was looked at and no action taken

78

James, have you been able to establish WHY no penalty was given to Vettel?

Were there extenuating circumstances to which the viewer was not privvy as SV also appeared to overtake Verne under yellows.

79

Inconsistency from race control. Vettel passes the incident and a green flag is waved, however, the electronic board after the marshal’s post is still yellow (when it should be green).

80

Vettel did not overtake any driver under yellow. Not Kobayashi, not Vergne.

The pass on Kobayashi has been explained enough: it wasn’t a blinking yellow so he could overtake.

The pass on Vergne was also legal: there was a marshall waving green flags at the beginning of the straight. It was only after that Vettel began his manoeuvre.

81

actually Pat Fry (Ferrari’s technical boss) clarified this issue by saying that the waving flag was actually yellow and red! which means it s a warning to drivers about treacherous track conditions. that was confirmed later by alonso when asked about the matter by saying “there was some kind of hope when he (button) told me there is some yellow flag problem but then i think it was not ture”.

82

Yes, on the Kobayashi pass it was yellow/red, but on the Torro Rosso pass it was clearly yellow. It also indicated yellow flag on his dash.

http://youtu.be/LFER0esusF0?t=7m58s

83

The problem with this stems from skysports F1’s coverage Alan McNish making the biggest mistake in analyzing the situation and almost stating, had he been the driver steward would have given Vettel a penalty, hence most people jumping on it without realizing the rules.

Personally I think he should apologize for misleading the audience.

84

James go onto YouTube and type in vettel yellow flag. There is 2 incidents where you could argue he overtook under yellow flags separate to the kobayashi incident. He makes moves on a hrt and a toro rosso. The toro rosso one is completed in green flag zone but it is definitely started in a yellow flag. No question at all.

85

The two incidents that were picked by Sky involving the HRT and Kobayashi were both legitimate. However, some new footage has emerged from the onboard feed involving a Torro Rosso which is very borderline. Watch from 9:45 onwards http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFER0esusF0&feature=youtu.be

86

Tha’s clearly illegal

87

I love Schumacher but did anyone else feel that the lack of effort in letting Vettel through was a poor move for the integrity of the sport. You see how hard he fights others when he is clearly the slower car.

88

Yeah it was a bit obvious how Michael let Seb through. But this scrap between Michael & Kimi was Sensational. Of course the Iceman is too good !

http://youtu.be/Yu61dlRMS5o

89

Nonetheless Vettel should have been given a drive through, for colliding with Senna in the 1st lap..

Also a penalty for overtaking under yellow..

It is clearly visible that the lights at the track were blinking yellow.. at the moment of Vettels pass on Koba, down the main straight.

For me it is clear why he didn’t get them.. it’s a better marketing for F1 to have the youngest tripple WDC in your current driversfield.. That, ofcourse, is history in the making.

90

May be a penalty for the collision. The yellow light is a different thing; it was reviewed and Vettel was not found guilty. Either way that wouldn’t have made any difference. He would have been up there in no time. It took him only a handful of laps to get into points after spinning and dropping back to the last position.

91

This guy proves that Vettel did pass under yellow, but not the Sauber, it was the Toro Rosso.

http://youtu.be/LFER0esusF0?t=7m58s

92

Boozie, I can’t reply directly to you, but I zoomed in on that picture and don’t see any flag, let along a green flag.

http://i49.tinypic.com/212bl1c.jpg

93

And this picture shows that there was a marshall waving a green flag comfortably before he overtook at the post next to the pitlane exit.

http://i49.tinypic.com/212bl1c.jpg

non issue!

94

YES…Seb should never have won the championship

95

I agree he coild have gotten the first penalty, but the “yellow flag” overtake has been confirmed as a red/yellow slippery track flag by the stewards; it’s a non-issue.

96

Its gonna be a long winter (off season) for fans like this how many times would this yellow light incident be explained?

97

Forget the Sauber pass, than look at the Torro Rosso pass,..

Also why did Hulkenberg get a DTP, for his collision with Hamilton.. But Vettel not for his collision with Senna etc..

I cant’t explain..

98

Now you have to ask the stewards about that but for the Toro Rosso pass There’s a Marshall on the left waving a green flag thus supersedes the light you need to read the rules before jumping into conclusions.

Also I thought the DTP for hulk was harsh as he was on the racing line also where was Hamilton going was he gonna drive thru the Caterham? hulk slid a little but unfortunately not enough space to recover the car.

99

Vettel overtook ne Toro Rosso under clear yello flags no red and yellow or anything, flashing yellows. But stewards didn’t see, ofc…

100

This is strange. Alonso would also have been the youngest triple WDC if he had won the title :-).

That would have been better marketing in fact, given that next year Hamilton & Vettel could have a go at the record. Especially Vettel, since he continues in Red Bull.

101

How could Hamilton become a 3 time world champion next year?!?!?! He’s only won one!

102

Blinking yellow is the slippery conditions warning (yellow flag with red stripes when done with the flags), non-blinking yellow is the yellow flag (no overtaking).

103

Sorry, got these backwards (of course). Solid yellow is slippery conditions, blinking is a yellow flag.

In the sections leading up to the overtake the yellows are blinking, they then enter a green section which is when Vettel moves to overtake, as he proceeds to pass another yellow is visible but it’s solid so he is still OK to overtake.

Luckily there are plenty of despondent Ferrari fans uploading the video to youtube in hope so that you can go watch for yourself.

104

For “Button and Hulkenberg was confidence that they could generate the tyre temperature.”

Is it not a case of having nought to lose for Jens and Hulk, whereas Seb and Alonso did not have this luxury ?

105

No, it’s about the car and the way it’s driven

106

James, good article, but I still not agree about the safety car (the first one) benefitting Vettel in any way. With Vettel 1.5 seconds behind Alonso and Alonso far away from the top 3 place he needed, closing up the gaps meant Alonso got a shot at the podium again.

Vettel, on the other hand, had about 3 seconds advantage over Kobayashi before the safety car. Closing the gap meant Kobayashi could pass Vettel (the RBR not having enough speed to defend properly on the dry) and Vettel lost a lot of time as a consequence.

I don’t think the end result was altered that much by the safety car, but it was not beneficial for Vettel.

107

Yes … I too agree. It was not beneficial to Vettel.

108

MDS:

Definitely agree – that first safety car did not benefit VET at all…he was much better off beforehand in most ways (ahead of MAS, gap to KOB etc) other than the gap from him to the leaders (BUT/HUL) but he wasn’t concerned about that and preferred ALO to be way back.

It was mainly good for both MAS and ALO.

109

+ 1 it made Seb race more complicated in traffic and under attack by those who had less at stake… Moreover Webber was not ver helpful squeezing him at the start on the inside and with the 3 abreast banzai move on turn 1 with Kamui. Alo had a fantastic teammate in Massa that allow him to keep hopes alive on the last 3 races, should Webber w/o team orders be his teammate he would have lost the title some races ago…

110

I agree that the safety car did not help Vettel.

However, the safety car altered the end result quite dramatically, as we would not have seen the HAM – HUL incident otherwise. So Alonso is unlikely to have scored a podium without the safety car.

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