The Brazilian Grand Prix brought to an end a season which has seen Formula 1 run to a quite different pattern in terms of Race Strategy, largely due to the Pirelli tyres. But also because the DRS wing has made it easier for cars to overtake, so less time is lost for fast cars in trying to pass slower ones after coming out behind them from a pit stop.

Earlier this season the way the cars used the Pirelli tyres meant that they degraded quickly and the performance of the tyres dropped off a cliff after a small number of laps, forcing multiple pit stops. But as the year went on the teams learned more about how to use the tyres and got longer life from them.

Although it has felt like a year of change, if you analyse the top six or eight starting positions compared to the finish positions, the amount of variation compared to last year isn’t that great; Vettel and Webber normally finish more or less where they start, as does Hamilton Button and Alonso usually make up a place or two, Schumacher qualifies a bit behind but races though to finish where he should have qualified.

So despite the Pirelli tyres and the DRS wings, the outcomes haven’t changed that much, but the way they has been achieved has been more interesting for the spectators because of more overtaking and more use of Race Strategy. So the races have seemed more engaging.

Instead of everyone doing the same strategy, as happened last year, people do different strategies. So instead of everyone running in pace order all race long, cars can rise and fall in positions during the race and there is more shuffling about of the order, which creates crunch situations and battles within the race, such as the Massa /Hamilton scraps or the Alonso/ Webber scraps we’ve enjoyed this year.

If the leading four teams were closer to each other on pace, as the midfield runners are, it would make for some really interesting races. The midfield battle has been really exciting this year with Race Strategy used to make significant gains and here we’ve seen Toro Rosso and Sauber in particular finish well ahead of where they have qualified. Force India have also scored a lot of points from qualifying positions on the fringes of the top ten.

There has been a difference this year between the way different teams have used their tyres. But what has not happened this year is a crossover point between the softer and the harder tyre which offers a range of options as to how to run the race, either taking the longer run on the harder one or the shorter run on the faster tyre, where they cross over.

“What you need is the softer tyres, the super soft and the soft, they need to be fast but degrade,” says Paul Hembery. “The medium and harder tyre need to be slower but be more stable, and basically you have to work how many laps you go before you are better off being on the other one.”

It’s very important that Pirelli achieves the crossover point next year, otherwise the strategies could become a bit generic.

Two stops versus Three in Brazil

In the final race of the season at Interlagos the teams at the front generally decided before the race that the best way to do the race would be to stop three times, dividing the race into three stints of roughly 20 laps on soft tyres and then a short stint on the slower medium tyres.

Jenson Button did three stops but approached it differently, as we shall examine later.

Several of the midfield teams thought that two stops would be possible and a couple of them pulled it off, with Di Resta and Kobayashi scoring points with the plan

The medium tyre had shown itself to be around 0.8secs a lap slower than the soft in practice and qualifying, but in a race stint it was down to more like 0.5secs for most teams, apart from Ferrari, who really struggled for pace in it again in the race.

Button was pushed into running two stints on the medium tyre because his third set of soft tyres had proved not to be very good on Saturday. When Button went onto the medium tyre on lap 31, he was at the same pace as Alonso on softs. Button did a 1m 16.9 on 3rd lap which looked good and he then ran in the 1m 17s.

The one variation among the top teams was Felipe Massa who did a two stop strategy. He said he was pushed into it by a damaged set of softs after qualifying, but it opened up and interesting option.

It was surprising that Massa hasn’t done this more often this season, because running in sixth place as he usually is, the slowest of the top six drivers, he generally has no pressure from behind and if he does the same plan as the McLarens and Alonso in front of him, he’ll stay sixth.

Here the Ferrari strategists decided to try it and it did allow him to take track position over McLarens for a while so on that level it worked and was worth a try. There is a 71 % chance of a safety car at Interlagos and if one had come in Brazil it would have played into his hands, as would the rain that was forecast, but which never came.

Rosberg vs Sutil

Force India’s Adrian Sutil did a fantastic job to beat the Mercedes of Nico Rosberg for sixth place and they approached the race in quite different ways.

Rosberg did a very long second stint on a new set of soft tyres – 26 laps. He stopped for the first time on lap 16, which is too short for a two stop strategy. But was behind Sutil who had better pace. On a new set of softs he couldn’t keep up with the Force India car. So from that point, if he did a three stop plan, like Sutil, then he wouldn’t beat him.

So the only way he could try to beat him was by doing two stops and trying to get track position after his final stop. It required a very long middle stint on soft tyre.

Although it worked in that he managed to find himself ahead, in the end Rosberg got beaten by a faster car. After the final stops, they found themselves on the same tyre and Rosberg’s tyres were only three laps older, so the plan was great and should have worked, but Rosberg couldn’t stay ahead. The two stop was the right strategy in terms of getting track position but he just couldn’t hold on to the place.

Sutil crammed three stops into what would normally be a two stop window and he managed to keep a good pace. His short stints were an aggressive strategy, but with Massa doing only two stops and not being as quick as he would normally would be, at one point he came back towards Sutil and almost impacted on Sutil’s race, as you can see on the race history graph below.

The Force India was very quick this weekend. Paul Di Resta hadn’t done as well in qualifying and so the team put him on a two stop plan. He was racing Petrov and Kobayashi and easily won that battle.

Di Resta’s two stop was a defensive strategy, like Rosberg’s because it will give you track position after your second stop and then it’s a question of whether you can keep your opponent behind you.

The UBS Strategy Report is prepared by JA on F1 with input and data from several F1 team strategists and engineers.

RACE HISTORY GRAPH

It was a scintillating lap by Vettel, only a tenth faster than team mate Mark Webber, but a perfect summing up of the season in many ways, as the German put everything together in one lap. The Red Bull’s prowess in the middle sector was the decisive factor in keeping them ahead of the McLaren of Jenson Button, who edged out team mate Hamilton with a very strong performance.

“These number are made for ever. I said to myself going into qualifying that I must get everything out of the car. It’s all about putting everything into one lap. Fortunately we had some great Saturdays and this feeling now is very special,” Vettel said.

Vettel acknowledged that he beat Mansell’s record with three more races in the season,
but it still clearly means a lot to him.

Rain showers had been forecast, but as the qualifying hour got underway the track was dry and the ambient temperature was high, but the wind was increasing in force.

Nevertheless everyone went out early to get a lap in as the weather was hard to predict.

Rubens Barrichello did a fantastic lap to get into Q2 half a second ahead of team mate Maldonado who was eliminated along with the new teams. Heikki Kovalainen was only 4/10ths of a second slower than the Williams, the best of the season, thanks to the new rear wing.

Meanwhile the HRT cars both outqualified the Virgin cars, Liuzzi ahead of Ricciardo for the first time since Korea.

In Q2 Paul Di Resta failed to make the most of a quick Force India car, ending up 11th three tenths behind team mate Sutil as he has been all weekend. “I really struggled. We have a top speed issue which gave away some lap time to the opposition,” he said.

Barrichello did an excellent job to get the Williams up to 12th when their expectation had been that they’d be in lower reaches of Q2. “The people pushed, I used the power of the people,” said a delighted Brazilian.

Bruno Senna did a great job to get his Renault into the top ten.

In Q3 Vettel set the pace in the first runs, three tenths ahead of Webber and four tenths up on Button. In his second run he broke through into the 1m 11s, with a perfect lap.

Button edged out Hamilton for the seventh time this season and the younger man was forced to admit he was beaten for pace,

“Jenson was massively quick today,” said Hamilton candidly. “I ended up a couple of tenths away from him, so clearly I could have gone a bit faster, but the fact is that although I didn’t make any mistakes on my best lap I just wasn’t quite quick enough on the day.”

Brazilian Grand Prix, Interlagos, Qualifying
1. Sebastian Vettel Red Bull 1m11.918s
2. Mark Webber Red Bull 1m12.099s + 0.181
3. Jenson Button McLaren 1m12.283s + 0.365
4. Lewis Hamilton McLaren 1m12.480s + 0.562
5. Fernando Alonso Ferrari 1m12.591s + 0.673
6. Nico Rosberg Mercedes 1m13.050s + 1.132
7. Felipe Massa Ferrari 1m13.068s + 1.150
8. Adrian Sutil Force India 1m13.298s + 1.380
9. Bruno Senna Renault 1m13.761s + 1.843
10. Michael Schumacher Mercedes

11. Paul di Resta Force India 1m13.584s + 1.138
12. Rubens Barrichello Williams 1m13.801s + 1.355
13. Jaime Alguersuari Toro Rosso 1m13.804s + 1.358
14. Sebastien Buemi Toro Rosso 1m13.919s + 1.473
15. Vitaly Petrov Renault 1m14.053s + 1.607
16. Kamui Kobayashi Sauber 1m14.129s + 1.683
17. Sergio Perez Sauber 1m14.182s + 1.736

18. Pastor Maldonado Williams 1m14.625s + 1.344
19. Heikki Kovalainen Lotus 1m15.068s + 1.787
20. Jarno Trulli Lotus 1m15.358s + 2.077
21. Tonio Liuzzi HRT 1m16.631s + 3.350
22. Daniel Ricciardo HRT 1m16.890s + 3.609
23. Jerome D’Ambrosio Virgin 1m17.019s + 3.738
24. Timo Glock Virgin 1m17.060s + 3.779

The Brazilian Grand Prix is special for a number of reasons; set in a natural bowl around a lake in a suburb of Sao Paulo, the passionate and noisy crowd can see most of the circuit from their seat. The venue is also at one of the highest altitudes of any F1 circuit at just over 800 metres. This means that the atmospheric pressure is almost 10% less than at sea level and this cuts engine power, downforce and drag by a similar amount.

It is also the shortest lap of the season in terms of lap time, a quick lap there being under 1m 12 seconds, so the qualifying and racing have an intense quality about them. The circuit has a fast opening downhill sector and final uphill sector, with a tight infield sector in the middle.

It is one of five anti-clockwise circuits on the calendar.

Contents – the Key Strategy considerations

• Track characteristics
• Form guide
• Weather forecast
• Likely tyre performance
• Number and likely timing of pit stops
• Chance of a safety car
• Recent start performance & Pit Stop League Table

Track characteristics

Interlagos – 4.309 kilometres. Race distance – 71 laps = 305.909 kilometres. 15 corners in total. Average speed 210km/h. A classic circuit set in a natural bowl, in a suburb of Sao Paulo.

Aerodynamic setup – Med/High downforce. Top speed 323km/h (with DRS open) 311km/h without.

Full throttle – 60% of the lap time (ave/high). Total fuel needed for race distance – 144 kilos (ave/low). Fuel consumption – 2.00 kg per lap (low)

Brake wear- light. Number of braking events – 6, Time spent braking – 16% of the lap.

Loss time for a Pit stop = 15 seconds
Total time needed for a pit stop: 20 seconds

Fuel effect (cost in lap time per 10kg of fuel carried): 0.33 seconds (ave)

Form Guide

The Brazilian Grand Prix is the final round of 19 in the 2011 FIA F1 World Championship. The championship was decided three races ago in favour of Red Bull’s Sebastian Vettel, who was also the winner of the Brazilian GP last season. In 2009 Mark Webber won the race for Red Bull.

Interlagos is a real Red Bull circuit, the car does well on the second gear corners in the second sector and on the higher speed turns as well, such as the crucial final left hander onto the pit straight.

Felipe Massa won the race for Ferrari in 2006 and 2008, while Michael Schumacher has won it four times. McLaren hasn’t won there since 2005 and neither Lewis Hamilton nor Jenson Button has ever won there, despite both clinching their world titles at this event by finishing in fifth place in 2008 and 2009 respectively.

Only 7 drivers have finished on the podium so far in 2011 – a very low number – and if that remains the case after Sunday’s race it will tie the record low in one year, set in 1992, 2000 and 2002.

Weather Forecast

Rain showers are a common occurrence in Sao Paolo at this time of year and many Brazilian Grands Prix have experienced sudden showers over the years. The forecast for the weekend is for temperatures around 25 degrees centigrade but with storms on Friday and showers on Saturday and Sunday.

Likely tyre performance and other considerations

Pirelli tyre choice for Brazil: Soft (yellow markings) and Medium (white markings). This combination has been seen several times, but the soft tyre this weekend is a different model from the one used all year.

Pirelli has been working on a new soft compound, testing it in Germany and again the recent Young Drivers’ test at Abu Dhabi. It is slightly harder than the soft tyre that has been in use for most of this season and is closer in performance to the medium tyre, the difference being around a half a second to seven tenths.

The tyre also has better thermal durability. It should be possible to use this tyre for longer than the old soft, opening up strategic options.

The track does not have a particularly abrasive surface and the energy going into the tyres is not particularly high, apart from the series of left hand corners before the final straight. On top of that, the tyres get plenty of rest on the two long straights.

The limiting factor on this track is the rear tyre, with the stop-start traction events in the series of corners in the middle part of the lap and the last corner onto the uphill final straight.

In the event of a wet race, drivers are not obliged to use both compounds of dry Pirelli tyres. Pirelli will have full wet and intermediate tyres on hand.

During Friday practice drivers will have two sets of Pirelli’s new experimental hard tyre to try out with a view to 2012.

Number and likely timing of pit stops

The pit lane at Interlagos is quite short and the time needed for a stop is only 15 seconds plus the stationary time. The indications, with this in mind and with the likely behaviour of the tyres, are that two stops will be the way to go.

However the new soft tyre will be capable of longer runs than its predecessor and with the high likelihood of a safety car, we may see teams try some one stop strategies as this can be greatly helped by a safety car deployment. Some teams will probably split the strategies (see notes under Safety Car below)

Overtaking at Interlagos isn’t too much of a problem, thanks to the long uphill straight leading to the Senna S. And with the DRS wing it should be even more possible this year.

Chance of a Safety Car

The chances of a Safety Car are high at 71%. The Safety Car has been used in seven of the last ten races. It is often called into action on the first lap, as it’s a short lap with 24 cars charging into tight corners.

This makes the Safety Car an important element to factor into Race Strategy planning. It encourages teams to hedge their bets and split strategies with one car doing a conventional two stop plan and the other on a one stop, which would benefit from a safety car. This is because a safety car would close up the field reducing any time loss and if timed well, would allow a one stopping car to effectively get a free pit stop.

Recent start performance

Starts are a critical part of the race and strategy can be badly compromised by a poor start, while good starts can make strategists change their plans in the hope of a good result.

In Abu Dhabi, the winners off the line were Liuzzi, Barrichello and Kobayashi (gained 5 places) and Alonso (gained 3 places). The losers were Senna (lost four places), and Vettel who retired after a tyre deflated suddenly after the first corner.

Below is a chart showing aggregate 2011 start performances. Places lost due to contact with other cars or incidents at the start are counted, those where a car has retired without contact are not. Drivers have gained (+) or lost (-) places off the start line this season on aggregate as follows:

Gained places

+29 Schumacher *

+19 Glock
+18 Liuzzi

+16 Kovalainen
+15, Buemi #
+13 Alonso***
+12 Ricciardo
+8 Di Resta, Massa
+4 D’Ambrosio, Heidfeld ******
+3 Kobayashi**
+2 Trulli

Lost places
-2, Chandhok,

-3 Vettel ######
-7, Rosberg*****
-8 Hamilton, Maldonado
- 9 Sutil ##,
-11 Button, Alguersuari####

-12 Perez ###
-16 Petrov,****,
-20 Senna, Barrichello #####

- 23 Webber

* Schumacher had one bad start in Australia, losing 8 places but since then has been the season’s outstanding starter. He gained 9 places in Spa and four in Monza.

** Kobayashi lost 10 places in Spain, prior to that he had gained 8 in 4 starts. He lost 7 places in an incident at the start in India.

*** After losing places in the first three races, Alonso has reversed that trend. His starts in Barcelona and Monza were outstanding.

**** Petrov had a good record until he lost 4 places at the start in Valencia. He was on a +2 balance before Monza where he was taken out at the start.

***** Rosberg lost four places at the start in Silverstone and was on a +6 balance before Monza where he was taken out in the first corner

****** Heidfeld had gained 20 places but lost 12 at the start in Germany

******* Di Resta had consistent start form and gained 7 places in the first nine races, but lost 12 at the start in Germany.

# Buemi made up nine places at the start in Hungary having started 23rd on the grid

## Sutil had a positive start balance until Hungary where he lost 12 places at the start

### Perez lost nine places off the start in Hungary.

#### Alguersuari was doing well with a +6 record prior to Spa, where he was hit by another car and lost 18 places. In Monza he gained 7 places at the start.

##### Barrichello lost 7 places at the start in India

###### Vettel had a non-contact puncture and retired on lap 1 in Abu Dhabi

Pit Stop League Table

Of course good strategy planning also requires good pit stop execution by the mechanics and there have been some amazing performances; we have seen tyre stops carried out in less than two and a half seconds this year.

The league table below shows the order of the pit crews based on their average time for a stop in this year’s world championship, taking out anomalies.

1= Red Bull Best
1= Mercedes Best
3 McLaren + 0.3s
4 Force India + 0.4s
5 Ferrari + 0.5s
6 Renault + 0.9s
7 Williams + 1.1s
8= Lotus + 1.3s
8= Sauber + 1.3s
8= Toro Rosso + 1.3s
11 Virgin + 1.6s
12 HRT + 3.2s

The UBS Strategy Briefing is prepared by JA on F1, with input and data from engineers and strategists of F1 teams.

It was a difficult result to swallow for Webber, who would have been only one point behind Alonso if the team had backed him. But that is not their philosophy and you can debate the rights and wrongs of that. It would have helped as Webber struggled a bit for pace at Abu Dhabi last year, it’s not really his kind of circuit. Alonso has the Red Bull pair exactly where he wants them.

The race start was decisive. At the getaway, Hulkenberg held the lead into turn 1, but lost it to Sebastian Vettel down the back straight. Webber lost a place to Hamilton into Turn 1, but managed to repass into Turn 2. He then forced Hulkenberg into a mistake in Turn 3 and moved through to second place.

Alonso attacked Hamilton at the end of lap one, but then pushed Hamilton into a similar mistake to Hulkenberg at turn 3 and he was through. For the second time in two races Alonso had passed his great rival by forcing him into making a mistake.

Alonso sized up Hulkenberg for a while before making a sublime pass in turn 3 on lap five. But in those first three laps, crucially, he lost 10 seconds to Webber in second place.

Hamilton struggled to follow him, radioing his team that he had ‘no grip’. The McLarens seemed to struggle for pace in the early stages, Jenson Button was passed by Michael Schumacher.

Button was the first to pit for hard tyres on lap 11, which triggered a similar move from Ferrari with Massa and Williams with Barrichello.

Barrichello had a problem at his stop, while Massa pitted a second time, as a wheel had not been fitted properly. On lap 15 Hulkenberg pitted and was jumped by Button.

Hamilton stayed out, now racing Button – who had started 11th – for position. He pitted on lap 20 and rejoined ahead of his team mate.

Alonso meanwhile was on the same pace as the Red Bulls but he had a 10 second margin to Webber from the time lost behind Hulkenberg.

Alonso pitted on lap 25 for hard tyres and rejoined second. This triggered a move by Vettel who pitted on lap 26. Webber pitted a lap later and rejoined second, the pit stops changing nothing.

Nico Rosberg impressively kept his soft tyres going longer than his peers and was running fifth before his stop. he rejoined behind Button in seventh behind Kobayashi who was running long on hard tyres in the opening stint.

Around lap 30 Alonso asked his engineer about his relative pace to the Red Bull cars, weighing up whether to push his engine to try to catch or whether to conserve the engine with Abu Dhabi in mind.

Webber was pushing hard at mid distance, knowing that Vettel’s engine was on its third race while his own was on it second.

Barrichello was forced to pit on lap 36 as he had a puncture after contact with Alguersuari. Hulkenberg meanwhile was down in 10th place, albeit behind Sutil and Kobayashi who had not stopped.

Webber continued to push hard, getting the gap down to 1.5 seconds, as the pair came upon a train of eight cars all fighting for position. Massa was first and Webber lost 3/10ths to Vettel lapping him.

The team told him that his engine temperatures were high, so he had to short shift on gearchanges. Inevitably he felt that it would have been helpful, but he also knew he could not count on it.

On lap 50, Tonio Liuzzi crashed heavily at the Senna S triggering a safety car. This allowed Alonso to close the gap on the Red Bulls and gave Kobayashi a great chance with new soft tyres and a closed up field.

Also taking the opportunity to pit for new softs under the safety car were the two Mercedes, two McLarens and Massa. Rosberg’s race was ruined by a chaotic stop by Mercedes, seemingly not knowing which tyres to put on.

Hamilton was now fourth on new tyres at the restart. Vettel had the luxury of two cars between him and Webber at the restart.

It was a bad day for Brazilian F1 fans, with Massa 15th, Barrichello 17th, Senna 21st and Di Grassi out.

If Red Bull wanted to maximise their chances of winning the drivers’ title they would have prioritised Webber today, but they do not have that philosophy and so the task is difficult for both Red Bull drivers in Abu Dhabi.

“Today is about the team, ” said a disappointed Webber of the Constructors’ Championship success. “People like Adrian Newey, David Coulthard, who out a lot of work in, Christian Horner. We have some soldiers back at base. Adrian pushes them hard. We’ve hit a few logs in the river along way but I want to thank everyone.”

Asked whether he wished the team had allowed him to win, Webber said, “It helps but it’s not in the team’s philosophy. Fernando got some points in Hockenheim, but that’s happened many times in the past.”

Asked whether he would allow Webber through to take the title if the top three in the closing stages of the race were the same as today, Vettel said,

“We will see where we are. Operating those cars on the limit you are never certain. In my case it’s straightforward I need to get the result. We both know how to act. We had some moments we are not proud of. In that situation it is obviously something that we would think of.”

In reality he would have no choice as for a Red Bull driver to hand the drivers’ championship to Alonso in that scenario is unthinkable. But there are many other permutations in the final race of this classic championship.

BRAZILIAN GRAND PRIX, Interlagos, 71 laps

1. Vettel Red Bull-Renault 1h33:11.803
2. Webber Red Bull-Renault + 4.243
3. Alonso Ferrari + 6.807
4. Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes + 14.634
5. Button McLaren-Mercedes + 15.593
6. Rosberg Mercedes + 35.300
7. Schumacher Mercedes + 43.400
8. Hulkenberg Williams-Cosworth + 1 lap
9. Kubica Renault + 1 lap
10. Kobayashi Sauber-Ferrari + 1 lap
11. Alguersuari Toro Rosso-Ferrari + 1 lap
12. Sutil Force India-Mercedes + 1 lap
13. Buemi Toro Rosso-Ferrari + 1 lap
14. Massa Ferrari + 1 lap
15. Petrov Renault + 1 lap
16. Barrichello Williams-Cosworth + 1 lap
17. Heidfeld Sauber-Ferrari + 1 lap
18. Kovalainen Lotus-Cosworth + 2 laps
19. Trulli Lotus-Cosworth + 2 laps
20. Glock Virgin-Cosworth + 2 laps
21. Senna HRT-Cosworth + 2 laps
22. Klien HRT-Cosworth + 6 laps

DRIVERS’ CHAMPIONSHIP
1. Alonso 246
2. Webber 238
3. Vettel 231
4. Hamilton 222
5. Button 199
6. Massa 143

CONSTRUCTORS’ CHAMPIONSHIP
1. Red Bull-Renault 469
2. McLaren-Mercedes 421
3. Ferrari 389
4. Mercedes 202
5. Renault 145
6. Williams-Cosworth 69

Sebastian Vettel was second with Mark Webber third. Lewis Hamilton starts fourth on the grid tomorrow, one place ahead of championship leader Fernando Alonso.

Hulenberg: First Williams pole for five years (Darren Heath)

The Williams has often showed itself to be quick on a green track this year. In Suzuka on a green track after the heavy rain Hulkenberg was second fastest in Q1 behind Vettel and today he again used that characteristic of the Williams well. There was nothing flukey about this result. He got the tyres up to temperature quickly, which was the key to it and then kept them in, setting three laps progressively faster than each other.

“It is amazing. I still cannot believe that I have done it,” said Hulkenberg. “Since the second half of the season, since I am more familiar with Formula One, with the team, with myself and the car, everything comes a lot easier to me. I can push the car more, learn the circuits quicker. It is just a whole learning process I guess.”

Alonso paid tribute to Hulkenberg’s performance, “The surprise came from Hulkenberg, ” he said. “He was the only one to get a clean lap, everyone else, myself included, was not as clever. The dry line was really narrow and you only needed to get the tyres ten centimetres outside it and you lost a lot of time.”

Barrichello was the first to go to slicks and he made a mistake, going off and losing temperature which he was then unable to get back.

Hulkenberg has been under a lot of pressure lately, with stories that he would lose his seat to well funded Venezualan Pastor Maldonado. He clearly has a strong mentality as he has used that pressure to deliver a bravura performance. This weekend the picture at Williams seemed to have changed, even before Hulkenberg’s pole. It seemed that the driver situation was wide open with the possibility that Barrichello might be the one to make way as he is paid €5 million a year, while Hulkenberg is on less than a million. Williams’ sponsorship team are beavering away to replace the departing RBS, Philips and AT&T, with a lot of effort going into Qatar. It may be that the line up stays the same, it’s all to play for and that is why this result today is so critical to Hulkenberg’s future.

This result is also a huge boost to the team in that regeneration process and it’s hard to imagine how Hulkenberg could be allowed to leave after this.

For Vettel and Webber the overriding feeling was relief that they had come through a difficult session in second and third places. “It is very tricky in these conditions, very easy to make a mistake,” said Vettel. “We were targeting for pole, but Nico was better than all of us today.”

It will make for an interesting opening stint tomorrow, If Hulkenberg gets away in the lead. In dry conditions the Williams is a good half a second a lap slower than the Red Bulls, so he will hold them up, with Hamilton and Alonso right behind.

This battle will be interesting after what happened in Korea, where Hamilton got ahead of Alonso in the pit stops, but then made a mistake and gave the place back. He will be utterly determined to keep him behind tomorrow and it could have quite a bearing on the championship situation.

It rained hard in the morning and the free practice session was wet. However the sun was peeping through the clouds as the cars rolled out on track at the start of qualifying.

Adrian Sutil was the driver eliminated in Q1, along with the drivers from the new teams, the first time this season.

It was not raining at the start of Q2 either and the track steadily improved. It was all about being on the right tyre at the right time. Lap time wise it was at the changeover point, but the drivers were reluctant to go onto slicks. The fastest times inevitably came at the end of the session and the drivers who fell the wrong side of it were Jenson Button, Kamui Kobayashi, Nico Rosberg, Jaime Alguersuari, Sebastien Buemi, Nick Heidfeld, Tonio Liuzzi.

The tyre management plan for Q3 was very difficult to judge; the racing line was drying, but there were still parts of the circuit where it was wet. The intermediate tyres were overheating and all of the top ten runners would be in real trouble if they needed to use their intermediates tomorrow as they have no new sets left. The forecast says that it will be dry, however.

Remember there is only one day left in the online auction to bid for the signed Kobayashi overalls in aid of Mechanics Trust FIND OUT MORE

BRAZILIAN GRAND PRIX, Interlagos, Qualifying
1. Hulkenberg Williams-Cosworth 1:20.050 1:19.144 1:14.470
2. Vettel Red Bull-Renault 1:19.160 1:18.691 1:15.519
3. Webber Red Bull-Renault 1:19.025 1:18.516 1:15.637
4. Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes 1:19.931 1:18.921 1:15.747
5. Alonso Ferrari 1:18.987 1:19.010 1:15.989
6. Barrichello Williams-Cosworth 1:19.799 1:18.925 1:16.203
7. Kubica Renault 1:19.249 1:18.877 1:16.552
8. Schumacher Mercedes 1:19.879 1:18.923 1:16.925
9. Massa Ferrari 1:19.778 1:19.200 1:17.101
10. Petrov Renault 1:20.189 1:19.153 1:17.656
11. Button McLaren-Mercedes 1:19.905 1:19.288
12. Kobayashi Sauber-Ferrari 1:19.741 1:19.385
13. Rosberg Mercedes 1:20.153 1:19.486
14. Alguersuari Toro Rosso-Ferrari 1:20.158 1:19.581
15. Buemi Toro Rosso-Ferrari 1:20.096 1:19.847
16. Heidfeld Sauber-Ferrari 1:20.174 1:19.899
17. Liuzzi Force India-Mercedes 1:20.592 1:20.357
18. Sutil Force India-Mercedes 1:20.830
19. Glock Virgin-Cosworth 1:22.130
20. Trulli Lotus-Cosworth 1:22.250
21. Kovalainen Lotus-Cosworth 1:22.378
22. di Grassi Virgin-Cosworth 1:22.810
23. Klien HRT-Cosworth 1:23.083
24. Senna HRT-Cosworth 1:23.796

Teams are cheek by jowl with each other, journalists have to climb over tables and squeeze into corners to hear what’s being said at briefings and today we have seen a very calm Fernando Alonso and a Mark Webber who has chosen to cast himself as an underdog again.

Alonso spoke about his team mate Felipe Massa and how he’d like him to win the last two races. This is his way of saying that he’d like Massa to be really fast and get in the game. If Massa wins here, it takes away points from the Red Bull drivers and makes their task very hard.

Despite his cool facade, Alonso has some concerns, not least his engine. There have been suggestions that he may be able to use an engine that was replaced during the Bahrain weekend and according to the rules can only be reused at the final round. If useable this would be a very low mileage engine. But it’s a risk.

The team would not have been able to do any remedial work on the area they were concerned about. They will have been able to test it on the dynomometer in Maranello and they may well have run it in Friday practice somewhere and evaluated it carefully. One of the problems with the engine use plans is that you never know which engine is being used on Fridays. It’s quite possible that this Bahrain engine will be in the car tomorrow.

Alonso won Korea with an engine which had done Spa and Suzuka already, so they know they can still be competitive on the third race. Which is the lesser of the two risks?

Webber meanwhile had a rather strange press briefing this afternoon in which he allowed himself to be drawn by the media into talking about how the team has treated him,

“I wasn’t supposed to be in the hunt and it’s been inconvenient. I’ve enjoyed every second of it,” he said at one point. At another, speaking about support from the team he said, “Technically everything has been very good, but emotionally….” he left that hanging and no-one was in any doubt about what he meant.

Webber had a poor race in Korea and looking back at how he turned the wing swap incident in Silverstone round to a powerful motivating force I think he’s trying to do the same again. He’s psyching himself up for a critical weekend. Let’s see if it works.

He also said that he was surprised by the comments made by Gerhard Berger on Servus TV, a Red Bull owned TV channel, broadcasting out of Red Bull’s Hanger 7 in Salzburg. Berger accused Webber of trying to wipe Alonso when he came back across the track in Korea after hitting a wall. Instead he clouted Rosberg.

Webber said he would have “no problem” if Alonso were to win the championship by the seven points he gained from team orders in Germany, saying that it only happened because Massa wasn’t fast enough. “If he’d been ten seconds up the road it wouldn’t have happened,” he said.

Both drivers feel that they have a good car here. The Ferrari will be more of a match for the Red Bull here than Suzuka because of the absence of fast corners.

The great unknowns are Massa – will he be motivated to win in front of his home crowd and do a job for his team? And also the McLarens. They have some new parts on the car this weekend and Friday will be crucial to see whether they will get involved in the podium battle.

The atmosphere here is great and we are in for a very intense weekend, I sense. Try not to miss a moment of it, if you can.

Everything to smile about

So it is advantage Barrichello. The Brazilian needs to score five points more that Button tomorrow to take the fight to the final race in Abu Dhabi. Button needs a cool nerve, a win for Barrichello would require Button to finish third to take the title. But Mark Webber, who traded pole position times with Barrichello in Q3, will attack from the outset and as he is no longer in the hunt, he will have nothing to lose.

The other championship contender Sebastian Vettel had a nightmare day. The driver most people were tipping for pole in the dry, had set his car up for a dry race and couldn’t get the grip in the wet. Traffic was also a problem for him, but he did get some clear laps and he crashed out in first qualifying. He will start the race tomorrow in 16th on the grid.

There was a lot of standing water on the track, with rivers running across the track surface at many points. Most drivers experienced aquaplaning, the stepped floor acting almost like a hull, especially on cars which were trying to run a low ride height. With the potential for a dry race in prospect, the temptation was to try to run a dry set up.

The conditions were very challenging and the delays were long. It took well over two and a half hours to get to the end; Giancarlo Fisichello spun his car early in the first qualifying session, which brought out a red flag. He had already set a time before he spun, but track conditions improved greatly after the stoppage and he ended up 20th.

The first session claimed some big scalps; as well as Vettel, Lewis Hamilton, Heikki Kovalainen and Giancarlo Fisichella and Nick Heidfeld were all eliminated.

The second session was red flagged as Tonio Liuzzi hit the pit wall hard, knocking all four wheel off his car.

Alonso fastest. Photo: Darren Heath

Massa, who has dominated his home race for the last three years, watched the session on the Ferrari pit wall.

Sebastien Buemi was second, with Rubens Barrichello third. The Red Bull cars were fourth and seventh.

Jenson Button ended up 5th. Early on he was struggling with low tyre temperatures, a similar problem to the one which troubled him in the middle of the season. It was a chilly day, the air temperature just 18 degrees. The forecast is for rain showers this weekend.

The chilly conditions caused a lot of graining on the softer of the Bridgestone tyres and this will need to be watched over the weekend and may affect the tyre strategies for the race.

After several spins and a spectacular incident in the first session when Romain Grosjean demolished a marker board, the second session was low on incident. Giancarlo Fisichella stopped at the pit lane exit and stalled the Ferrari when he tried to do a practice start.

As always in Interlagos the field was extremely close; the whole field was separated by less than a second with the top 12 cars squeezed into half a second!

This will make qualifying very challenging indeed as a mistake worth a tenth or two could drop a driver five or six places on the grid. Button has not had a good time recently in qualifying and will have to be right on top of his game if he is to avoid giving himself another complicated Sunday afternoon.

Button can win the title on Sunday if he finishes in third place, regardless of what his rivals, Rubens Barrichello and Sebastian Vettel do.

Button could really do without this (Photo: Darren Heath)

Last year the rain played havoc with the race and set us up for one of the most thriling climaxes to a Grand Prix in years. It started to rain in the closing stages and the front-runners didn’t want to take any chances so pitted for wet tyres with a few laps to go. But the two Toyotas gambled on staying out on dry tyres. The rain fell harder in the last two laps and Timo Glock’s gamble failed to pay off, Hamilton passed him with on the penultimate corner and came through to win the world title. But it can be very finely balanced like that.

Jenson Button could do with a nice predictable weekend and a solid podium to finish things off in style. A chaotic race in the rain is the last thing he needs. It only takes one small slip and you are out of the race. Vettel and Barrichello will both view this weekend as an opportunity, they have nothing to lose and everything to gain from a wet and chaotic race.

If it does get complicated it will present a real challenge for the Brawn strategists to give both drivers and equal amount of attention, whereas Red Bull can focus on Sebastian Vettel.

No-one can have any certainty about their position in the wet at Interlagos, it is one of the most treacherous tracks in the calendar, “The weather can play a decisive role in Interlagos. Heavy rainfall causes rivulets of water on the track, which leads to aquaplaning,” says BMW technical director Willi Rampf.

Remember the race in 2003, where a car park of mangled machinery built up at the bottom of the hill after the Senna S? Even the great Michael Schumacher’s Ferrari ended up in that automotive graveyard. Mind you that was due to the fact that Bridgestone only brought an intermediate tyre to that race, which couldn’t cope with the conditions.

The long drag up the hill into the main passing zone of Turn 1 should give the KERS cars a real advantage and so McLaren are likely to get mixed up at the front with the championship contenders. I also think Toyota could be strong this weekend, coming off the back of two consecutive podiums.

* * *
Incidentally I’ve just found out that next year’s calendar has been changed. It looks like they have moved the Monaco Grand Prix back one week to 16th May. It was originally scheduled to be 23rd May as the first half of a back to back with Turkey, but logistically that was tricky. The following race is in Montreal two weeks after Turkey. I was alerted to it by a hotel, but it’s confirmed on the Automobile Club of Monaco website, even though nothing has been officially announced by Formula 1 management.

If you are planning a Monaco GP trip, you might want to change your reservations..