How the engineers and strategists will approach the British Grand Prix
Insight
XPB.cc
Posted By: James Allen  |  25 Jun 2013   |  7:32 am GMT  |  109 comments

Silverstone has the fastest corner combinations on the F1 calendar and is loved by the drivers. It can be a real headache for the engineers and strategists, however as it often shows up aerodynamic instabilities and it can be very difficult to get a good read on the tyres and the strategy, especially as there is usually rain during the practice sessions.

Last year’s race was won on a different strategy call by Red Bull compared to Ferrari, which worked in Mark Webber’s favour.

The track was built on a wartime airfield and therefore is in a windy spot, which can upset the balance of the cars.

The circuit has been modified quite a bit in the last few years and changes to the pit lane have changed the strategy planning, as the time taken in the pits is now longer. There are two DRS zones, so overtaking is not a problem at Silverstone, therefore the strategists will be looking for the fastest race option.

Various parts of have been resurfaced, such as the high speed Copse corner. The grip level remains relatively low, but the high speed corners take a lot out of the tyre, with especially high lateral energy.

Pirelli is bringing its medium and hard tyre compounds to the race this year, a similar selection to what we saw in Malaysia, Bahrain and Spain.


Track characteristics

Silverstone – 5.891km kilometres. Race distance – 52 laps = 306.227 kilometres. 18 corners in total. A high speed circuit based on an old WWII airfield. Lots of high-speed corners, aerodynamically challenging, very easy on brakes.

Aerodynamic setup – Med/High downforce. Top speed 311km/h (with Drag Reduction System active on rear wing) – 301km/h without.

Full throttle – 66% of the lap (medium). Total fuel needed for race distance – 150 kilos (average/high). Fuel consumption – 2.36kg per lap (high)

Time spent braking: 9% of lap (very low). 9 braking zones. Brake wear- Low.

Total time needed for pit stop: 25 seconds.

Fuel effect (cost in lap time per 10kg of fuel carried): 0.38 seconds (high)


Form Guide

The British Grand Prix is the eighth round of the 2013 FIA F1 World Championship.

Traditionally Silverstone has been a circuit which suits the Red Bull car, with its aerodynamics very effective in high speed corners. Red Bull has won the race in three of the last four years. With a lead in both the drivers’ and the constructors’ championships, they are currently the team to beat.

As far as drivers’ form is concerned; Mark Webber and Fernando Alonso have won the race twice, Lewis Hamilton, Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen have won there once.

Weather Forecast

The weather in England, even in summer, is notoriously hard to predict. Last year saw torrential rains spoil the weekend. It could be warm and sunny, or cold and wet. Currently it is warm and sunny in the UK.

There has been very little rain in the build up to the event, unlike last year. The long range forecast for this weekend is for temperatures around 18 to 19 degrees, cloudy, but no rain forecast for race day.


Likely tyre performance and other considerations

Pirelli tyre choice for Silverstone: Medium (white markings) and hard (orange markings). This is a similar combination to what we saw at Malaysia, Bahrain and Spain.

Last year Pirelli brought soft and hard to Silverstone and the rain throughout the weekend made for a fascinating tactical battle on race day between Red Bull and Ferrari. Alonso went for the hard tyre at the start, Webber went for the soft and he caught and passed Alonso in the closing stages.

This year the medium and hard tyres have been selected. These required four stops in Barcelona, so it will be interesting to see how much progress the teams have made on tyre management since early May. Two to three stops is more likely here (see below)

The wear rate of the tyres at Silverstone is high because of the lateral loads through the high speed corners, like Copse and Abbey. The surface of the track is not particularly grippy or aggressive, unlike Barcelona, so this will lead to less tyre degradation.

Number and likely timing of pit stops

Because the new pit lane at Silverstone is quite long, a stop is relatively slow by F1 standards at 25 seconds total pit lane time. This encourages teams to do less, rather than more stops.

Early predictions, provided that the weekend is not too much affected by rain, show that two stops is a likely scenario with the first stop between laps 10 and 15 and the second between laps 29 and 35.

But the key will be the deployment of the medium and hard tyres. Medium will be the qualifying tyre, so the top ten will start the race on it. But the strategists will be looking for which tyre combination gives the fastest race over the 52 laps, as traffic should not be too much of a problem.

Chance of a safety car

Silverstone is a fast, open circuit with lots of run off areas. So for marshals it’s relatively safe to recover a broken car.

The chances of a safety car are 57%, with 0.6 safety cars per race.


Recent start performance

As far as 2013 start performance is concerned drivers have gained (+) or lost (-) places off the start line this season, on aggregate, as follows –

Gained:

+12 Van der Garde*****


+9 Perez


+8 Gutierrez


+8 Sutil***


+7 Maldonado


+7 Massa



+4 Chilton


+4 Di Resta


+3 Button


+2 Pic

+1 Alonso


+1 Vettel



Held position:

Hulkenberg**


Lost:



-1 Rosberg

-1 Bianchi******

-4 Bottas


-4 Raikkonen


-5 Hamilton


-5 Webber*


-6 Ricciardo


-7 Grosjean

-9 Vergne ****




Pit Stop League Table

Of course good strategy planning also requires good pit stop execution by the mechanics and we have seen tyre stops carried out in less than two and a half seconds by F1 teams.

Here again McLaren leads the way. But it’s very close with the top six teams separated by just six tenths of a second.

The league table below shows the order of the pit crews based on their fastest time in the Canadian Grand Prix, from the car entering the pit lane to leaving it.

1. McLaren 20.212 secs
2. Ferrari 20.372s
3. Mercedes 20.656s
4. Red Bull 20.716s
5. Toro Rosso 20.739s
6. Lotus 20.859s
7. Force India 21.000s
8. Sauber 21.014s
9. Marussia 21.374s
10. Williams 21.637s
11. Caterham 22.033s


The UBS Race Strategy Briefing is written by James Allen with input and data from several F1 team strategists and from Pirelli

Strategy Insights
Strategy Briefings
Share This:
Posted by:
Category:
109 Comments
  1. goferet says:

    Finally the circus gets back to a real F1 track built and meant for racing.

    Yes, it’s around this time that season gets cracked up as we approach the half way point of the season so no more games.

    As for the British drivers and teams, this is a perfect opportunity to give the fans an excuse to have champagne showers, so wishing Lewis, Chilton, Jenson and Di Resta the best of luck.

    Also, it’s good that the track surface at Silverstone is less grippy than Barcelona and add that to fact that temperatures will be lower, maybe we won’t have many issues regards degradation of the tyres.

    Right, looking forward to an interesting weekend, hopefully, we do get some water works just to spice up the show.

    P.s.

    Hopefully, the sport will observe a moment of silence before the race for the poor marshall that passed in Canada.

    1. Quade says:

      A fast, low grip track is bad for tyres, because of sliding.

      Good luck to the all the Brits. Go Lewis!

  2. hulliby says:

    Great report as usual, I really enjoy these.

    I just thought it was interesting that Pirelli’s Paul Hembrey was quoted as predicting 3 or 4 stops, compared to the 2 (maybe 3) that makes logical sense here.

    Might not bode too well for Pirelli’s confidence in tyre wear this weekend…

  3. goferet says:

    Some British Grand Prix stats:

    Between 1950-1954 and 1987 to present, the race has been held solely held at Silverstone. The rest of the years it has been alternating between Silverstone, Brands Hatch and Aintree.

    i) Since 1987: Williams 7 wins, Mclaren 7 wins, Ferrari 7 wins >>> Newey cars altogether 13 wins

    ii) Since 1975, only on 3 occasions has a none Mclaren/none Ferrari/none Newey car won i.e. Renault 1983, Benetton 1995 and Renault 2006.

    iii) Most successful at British Grand Prix: Clark 5 wins, Prost 5 wins, Mansell 4 wins, Brabham + Schumi + Lauda = 3 wins >>> however Prost is the most successful at Silverstone with 5 wins

    iv) Prost is the only pilot to have won the British race in 4 different teams. No other driver has won in more than 2 teams

    v) We haven’t had a back to back winner since Couthard in 1999-2000.

    vi) Only Ferrari & Williams have scored 4 back to back wins (at Silverstone)

    vii) Only Mclaren drivers to have won more than one race (at Silverstone) are Couthard and Prost

    viii) Only Ferrari drivers to have won more than one race at the British Grand Prix are Gonzalez, Ascari and Schumi.

    ix) The Ferrari pilots Schumi and Alonso have had the biggest gaps between their first and second wins.

    Schumi 1998-2002. Alonso 2006-2011. So anybody that has had a gap bigger than 4 years since their first win will more likely be a one time winner e.g. Fangio, Senna, Hakkinen, Montoya, Hunt, Fittipaldi, Damon Hill etc.

    The only exception has been Lauda who had a 5 gap between 1st and 2nd win due to the fact he had retired from 1979-1981.

    1. egoFret says:

      Yes, you are most certainly a paragon of pedagogical promiscuity.

      Now, the number 9 features most strongly in your analysis – 13 times – which is not surprising considering the century which dominates F1. Sadly, number 6 loses out with only 2 appearances.

      Ps.
      Interestingly, those two numbers combine to form the total numeric usage in your statistical soufflé – 69 – leaving you in a good position indeed!

  4. goferet says:

    Some miscellaneous stats:

    a) We haven’t had a back to back winner in 2013

    b) Only the pilots in the team leader car have won in 2013.

    c) So far this season, Alonso has had a good race followed by a bad luck race

    d) For some strange reason, Vettel has had a dip in form in his birth month and with Sunday’s race being on the 30th of June, it’s yet not clear on which way the cookie will crumble.

    The only British Grand Prix Vettel has won was held on June 21st 2009 >>> which has been the earliest date since Vettel has been racing. The rest of the races since 2007 have been held in July.

    1. Richard says:

      Not true because Rosberg won Monaco.

      1. Ashboy says:

        Rosberg is car number 9, Hamilton is car number 10

      2. RodgerT says:

        The car with the lower number, and red camera bar is the team leader.

    2. I know says:

      Get your prior probabilities right, and none of these “events” are statistically significant.

      1. RodgerT says:

        It’s just a little bit of fun trivia, it doesn’t have to be significant.

    3. Steve says:

      “For some strange reason, Vettel has had a dip in form in his birth month”

      Nothing strange about it. The GP’s held in July, which most years are the German and Hungarian GP’s, are on tracks where the RB cars have a history of doing relatively poorly. Of course the same was true of Montreal up until a few weeks ago.

      1. Aman says:

        Webber won at nurburgring in 09 and almost won there in ’11. He also won at Hungary in 2010 where they were dominant and would’ve had a 1-2 if Seb didn’t make that mistake behind the safety car.

        The only track they’ve never really been the strongest is at Hockenheim where Ferrari have been strong for some reason.

    4. chris green says:

      ‘Only the pilots in the team leader car have won in 2013.’

      so i take it that you consider rosberg number 1.

      that’s news to a lot of us.

  5. **Paul** says:

    With the tyres the way they are I can’t see any of the front runners really pushing in sessions other than Q3 and laps 1-3 of race. Then we’ll be well into tyre conservation mode.

    For that reason, I think we might see an Alonso win, Fernando isn’t brill in qualifying but of the cars with good tyre conservation he’ll likely be furthest up the grid (i.e. Kimi is unlikely ot out qualify Alonso).

    The question is will the likes of Mercedes and Red Bull be able to fight this weekend or will they just have to let other cars past so as not to damage their tyres? I fear the latter… Fingers crossed we get a race though..

    1. AlexD says:

      Alonso and Ferrai do not have a real chance of winning. It is the track that will suit Red Bull and Ferrari could try and get the win assuming it would have been a hot weekend with a lot of tyre degradation. So when aero is in focus and you have a cold weekend, Red Bull is set to dominate. Mercedes will follow and Ferrari with fight Lotus for places outside podium. Please do come back to be after the race:-)

      1. heinzman says:

        it was cold in Montreal and the Ferrari caught and passed both Mercs and that on a circuit where tyres are less of an issue than this weekend.

      2. Andrew Carter says:

        Who says it’s going to be cold, it’s been quite warm around here recently.

    2. Elie says:

      That’s not true because Pirelli have nominated the hard and medium tyres instead of the softs like last year. This means it will not hurt Red Bull and it will be a little better for Merc. Lotus have been openly critical of this move in recent days saying that its unfair to change the nomination so late in the piece ( and rightly so). That said I think the Ferrari will be Red Bulls strongest challenger!

  6. Andy says:

    Regarding the recent start performance, how can you be so far out after only 7 races?
    Places gained – 66, places lost – 42, where are the other 24?

    1. Rockie says:

      Its not a balancing act its positions gained after the 1st lap.

      1. Andy says:

        For every position a driver gains, another driver must lose one, it’s not difficult.

      2. Rockie says:

        Before being condescending understand the concept 1st its about positions gained on the 1st lap vs positions lost so in Australia webber lost 4 at the start -4 and in Malaysia gained +3 so would be on -1 @ China hence if you look @ it that way you would understand it better.

      3. Andy says:

        Rockie, I understand that it is a net figure.
        Using your example of Webber, he loses 4 places in Aus, so either one or more drivers must have gained 4 places, Webber gains 3 in Malaysia, one or more drivers must have lost 3 places. All of the gains and losses should equal zero. The only exception would be where a driver retires before the end of the first lap, but that doesn’t explain the 24 difference.

      4. iceman says:

        Rockie, if you add up the scores for all drivers at a particular race they should still sum to 0 (barring retirements). If Webber got -4 at the start in Australia, that means 4 people passed him each gaining +1. Total = 0.
        If the sum for each race is 0, the sum for all races is 0. Addition is commutative – it doesn’t matter whether you add up all the drivers’ scores for a race and then add all the races together, or add up all the scores for a driver over the season and then add all the drivers. The result should be the same.

    2. I know says:

      Retirements.

      1. Andy says:

        Have there been 24 first lap retirements in 7 races? I don’t think so.

      2. I know says:

        If a driver retires, everybody running behind him gains one position.

      3. Rockie says:

        Well they are not included.

      4. Ganesh says:

        You dont need 24 first lap retirement – if some in position 10 retires – thats equivalent to losing 12 positions – 2 such incidents enought to get 24..

      5. iceman says:

        You know what, I can’t think of any! Which in itself is some sort of achievement.
        In Malaysia Alonso made it to the first corner of the second lap didn’t he.
        In Australia Hulkenberg qualified 11th but did not take the start, I guess the 11 people behind him might have each been credited with a +1 gain at the start of that race. But that doesn’t make 24. We must be missing something, I wonder what the answer to this conundrum is.

    3. Ganesh says:

      I agree – And all drivers are included – Sum of position gained & lost should be zero… like newton’s law…

      let’s make one..

      The law of conservation of positions:
      Positions can be neither created nor destroyed. However, positions can flow from one driver to another. The total number positions of an isolated system remains the same!!

      May be James has exclude drivers retiring in the first lap due to incidents.. technically, they should be counted as positions lost…

      1. James Allen says:

        That’s what the notes below are for…

      2. Ganesh says:

        James – notes were not included in this article..

    4. iceman says:

      Looking back to Australia, even after the first race the numbers didn’t add up. The total from Australia is +4:
      http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2013/03/can-lotus-repeat-in-malaysia-insight-into-how-the-racing-will-pan-out/
      We have JEV losing 1 place, and Bottas gaining 2. Since Bottas started 3 places behind JEV, and there were no retirements between them, that would have them sharing the same position after the start (13th if Hulkenberg is not counted).
      Similarly we have Gutierrez gaining 1 place, and Bianchi starting directly behind him gaining 2, which puts them in the same position too.
      There are a number of other, similar anomalies. I have no idea how these positions gained/lost are arrived at.

      1. Andy says:

        Good observations Iceman about the Malaysia Preview. I didn’t notice it when it was published, I tend to assume the info is correct.
        There can be no reason for Bianchi and Gutierrez being shown as holding the same race position at the end of the first lap, other than human error.
        The differences in the ‘+’ and ‘-’ were queried last year by other readers, but there was no explanation. After it was raised, I checked myself for the next two races, the ‘+’ and ‘-’ were correct for each race and they equalled zero, but the season cumulative was still wrong.

  7. TomEC3 says:

    Although the pit time is long, I believe the pit stop penalty is actually low as it cuts out a significant portion of the track…?

    1. I know says:

      No, it is still a high penalty due to the speed limit in the pit lane.

      1. Isaac says:

        I thought in 2011, Schumacher and Kobayashi were given stop-go penalties instead of drive-throughs because the pit lane time loss was too low?

  8. Tom says:

    I’m fearing a very dominant weekend from Red Bull. I hope Ferrari and Lotus can keep up with them this weekend.

    1. Phil Glass says:

      Strangely, I don’t see Vettel at all in my Silverstone chrystal ball. I see Webber on the third step, having perhaps without intent caused Seb off the track. I see Alonso spraying champagne over Kimi’s head, but which is the winner?
      Drinks on yours truly if Alonso wins.

      1. Get Well Soon Murray says:

        I’m an Alonso fan but I agree with Tom. Vettel will walk this one. Alonso and Kimi will be scrapping it out for second, 20 seconds back

      2. Quade says:

        I predict Lewis will overtake Kimi in points this race. So, if things continue as they now are, it’ll be Alonso and Lewis scrambling for second.

      3. Tom says:

        @Phill – I hope you’re right mate.

        Agree with you Murray unfortunately.

  9. Ahmed says:

    It will be interesting to see what the Mercedes tyre degradation is like at this circuit, which is similar in degradation to Spain, where they qualified 1st and 2nd, and they ended up 6th and 12th. Lets see if they did or did not learn “something” from the test. Ofcourse, Mercedes only did this to support Pirelli, gave up current car, mechanics, engineers, engine wear and their senior drivers & had no intention of any development gains. What a generous team!

    1. colin grayson says:

      poor mercedes …..supported pirelli and in exchange they weren’t allowed to test any tyre that is going to be used this season ; how much help is that !!!

    2. Quade says:

      Merc is coming to Silverstone with a major upgrade – so says Ross Brawn.

    3. Marcelo Leal says:

      Get over it…
      How many races we had after Spain?
      Mercedes is prohibited of evolving?
      They are having tyre degradation problems for years, and people are trying to say that 3 days of test would just fix it?
      If that is true, Ross was right to do it, even if they got a bigger penalty. ;-)
      Crazy…

      1. Ahmed says:

        2 races since Spain, both street circuits with minimal tyre wear. Merc had been struggling with tyre deg for 3 years, I think a private 3 day test would do wonders. The secrecy and sneaky nature of both Merc and Pirelli is a shame on the integrity of the sport. Do you really believe that they did not share any info or Merc did not make any adjustments throughout the 3 days??? Is it beyond any doubt that Pirelli would have analysed the car over 3 days and made some private “recommendations’ to Merc about ways to reduce tyre degradation and reduce tyre temps? I think Pirelli would certainly owe Merc a favour to have 3 days to test a 2013 car with its top driver pairing…
        But I suppose I’m jumping to conclusions and Merc would have figured out their tyre issues on their own without this secret test???

      2. Kingszito says:

        Ahmed

        If that is the case then Ferrari would have the same favor from Pirelli for testing tyre for them at Barcelona right before Barcelona GP which they won by the way. Let us be frank with ourselves, how could we expect 3 days of tyre test to be the silver bullet that cures Mercedes 3 years of tyre problem?

      3. Tim says:

        I may be wrong, but something about your post suggests bitterness :-)
        Personally, I don’t think you have anything to worry about – if Mercedes have solved their tyre issue as easily as you suggest then why didn’t they do it before?
        It just isn’t as easy as you imagine.

      4. Ahmed says:

        Tim/Kingszito,
        No bitterness here buddy, but it’s pretty obvious you are both Hamilton fan boys. I wouldn’t care which team it is, everyone agrees it was sneaky. All teams understand that you can’t test with current car. Mercedes took advantage of a weak FIA and a desperate Pirelli (getting slammed in the media) What would your reaction be if it were Ferrari or Red Bull???

      5. Quade says:

        @Ahmed
        All teams do sneaky things. Just to remind you; Merc used the fact that Massa had participated in a Ferrari tyre test that was significantly longer than the 1000km the rules allow. Maybe they did 2000 or 3000km, who knows? Its called cheating too. Without bitterness, all teams would be tarred with the same brush as cheats. Ferrari have simply put on the toga of innocence while being as greasy as the greasiest of greasy monkeys. Lol!

        As for Red Bull, they were scheduled to do a test as well, bets are off that their holier than thou attitude has now cost them that opportunity.

  10. Irish con says:

    Silverstone is a front limited track, and so far at the 2 front limited tracks Ferrari have won them both and should go well here if its dry. I think Merc will stil be on the front row and fernando on row 3 so should set up an interesting first half of the race anyways. I expect the long corners to hold back red bull with its front tyre struggles again and lotus to be back in the mix. If red bull win this weekend again tho that’s the championship over. Sadly.

    1. heinzman says:

      spot on, ferrari will be competitive

    2. Elie says:

      Agree Ferrari will be competitive especially given their epic late pace at Montreal. However you have to remember Pirelli are now bringing the Hard and mediums – which won’t bother Red Bull at all and especially not in the long turns. – Im disgusted at Pirelli for going conservative again just like late last year- this is only playing into the hands of RBR & Merc.The key thing here will be the temperatures which are expected to be on the cool side.

      I really hate to say this but that annoying finger boy could just disappear again with Fernando in tow. I really hope Im wrong and Lotus have found proportionate gains.

      1. Irish con says:

        Yes your right the tyres being harder will benefit red bull and if its cold it will help red bul also. But Ferrari also go better on tyres than are not super soft this year and in Barcelona even massa beat vettel with the same tyres and sort of track layout. Tho the temperature will be very different. Also last years Ferrari almost won at silverstone, they won in 2011 and the 2013 Ferrari is so much better than both them cars. And people never mention it much about silverstone but its a power track also and we know Ferrari beat Renault on the power outputs also.

    3. Andrew Carter says:

      Says who? From what I’ve read the only front limited tracks left on the calander are Hungary and Korea.

      1. Irish con says:

        Says me. The front left tyre cost Fernando the win last year with the amount of graining it was going through on the soft tyre as webber on the hard tyre had no problems.

      2. Andrew Carter says:

        No offense, but I’ll take Autosports word over yours.

        The graining last year was a specific problem of the soft tyre in the cool conditions which all the teams knew about before hand. Red Bull dealt with it by running the softs first when fuel load dictates a slow pace. Ferrari tried to run as long as possible before switching to the softs for the last stint and were too conservative, pitting early as they were worried about hitting the cliff. They lost due to a tactical error.

  11. Ganesh says:

    My 2 cents
    Pole position:
    Looking forward to the battle between Nico & Lewis for pole. Don’t see them winning this GP though. My prediction will be Nico over Lewis for pole.
    Lets see if Mark & Felipe can take the fight to their respective team mates atleast in quali – don’t see them performing better on Sunday though.
    Race – podium will feature Fernando, Kimi & Seb – Nico / Lewis might be able to spoil it for one of them.
    Ferrari should be able to qualify in top 4 while Kimi might be in Top 6. See Seb in top 2 or 3. Ferrari might be the strongest package for the race – only time will tell.

  12. Adam says:

    As a McLaren fan, this is going to be very depressing! No amount of strategy is going to make that rolling shed of a car into a home contender I fear.

    1. Get Well Soon Murray says:

      barring attaching a couple of rockets to the back of it

    2. RodgerT says:

      They were doing straight line aero testing today, so they might claw back some performance this weekend.

      1. Adam says:

        Here’s hoping :-)

    3. Robert says:

      Was thinking the same thing – this will be a very depressing weekend! No hope of anything like a good chance. Anything that can unsettle that car will, and Silverstone (as the article says) is hugely unsettling due to winds and other factors.

      Really, really wish they had a huge upgrade – not sure a straightline aero test will buy them much, as most of their problems seem to be in cornering and getting the balance sorted.

  13. Elie says:

    1.Red Bull 2. Ferrari 3. Lotus 4. Red Bull 5 Mercedes 6 Ferrari 7. Force India 8 Lotus 9 Mercedes 10 Torro Rosso

  14. Ben says:

    Can someone explain this to me?

    Total fuel needed for race distance – 150 kilos (average/high).
    Fuel consumption – 2.36kg per lap (high)

    So..

    150/2.36 = 63.56 laps worth of fuel but the race distance is 52 laps (plus the lap to the track, the warmup lap and the cool down lap).

    I can only assume that the fuel consumption is higher at the start of the race due to the weight of the fuel onboard but that still seems quite high considering most teams would underfuel the car?

    1. Kit says:

      They don’t consume exact amounts of fuel per lap and differ from engine to engine. more fuel is consumed if the driver is pushing hard ,ie hard on the throttle or if they switch on to high throttle mix , eg catching up or overtaking.
      Less will be consumed in situations like safety car or wet race,ie throttle applied gingerly and smoothly to avoid wheelspin.
      So the fuel load and managing it are important parameters to look at before and during the race.
      But I am no expert though.Perhaps someone could explain more and better

    2. Ganesh says:

      Good point – if I’m assuming 2.36 kg per lap is the average consumption. Let’s add couple of more laps – warm up & cool down – even then, you will not need 10 additional laps worth of fuel.

      Again average will change + / – 10 to 15% based on the engine settings..

  15. F*ckYeah says:

    Sorry James, numerical pedancy again :)

    “The chances of a safety car are 57%, with 0.6 safety cars per race.”

    Surely you mean 0.57 safety cars per race ? … If the chances are 0.57%.

    I am surprised it is so high, as you say, the track is so wide open you would think most wrecks end up somewhere in Oxfordshire !

    1. Antti says:

      There might be more than one safety car per race… As an example, if every other race had had safety car deployed, you’d say the chance for a safety car in a race was 50%, but if each race in which a safety car was deployed had actually two safety car periods, the average number of safety cars per race would be 1.

    2. [MISTER] says:

      Wow!
      James said 0.60 and you say 0.57. Big freaking difference! :) :) :) Hillarious!

    3. Andrew Woodruff says:

      What are you on about mate?!

      57% is the same as 0.57 which rounds up to 0.6. If you must be pedantic, you have to be right!

  16. Nic Maennling says:

    I hope they mark the passing of Gonzales as well as the Canadian marshal.

  17. JohnBt says:

    Racing will be back this weekend, finally. More than enough from the testgate debacle.

    Alonso
    Hamilton
    Vettel

    But if Hamilton wins surely the testgate will be reopened amongst fans.

  18. Valentino from montreal says:

    I raced on this track in Forza Motorsport dozens of times and I find that it’s a VERY demanding and challenging race track , but also = Super boring !!!

    1. AlexD says:

      How much weight did you lose during the race? Just trying to figure out how demanding and challenging it is:-)

    2. [MISTER] says:

      I find it very hard to believe driving a Formula 1 car is boring on any track :)

  19. Sri says:

    Lotus is bringing their biggest upgrade of the year (implying this their best shot and the rest of the year they have not got any). So if they don’t perform that well, then Kimi and Lotus can write their chances off this year.

    1. Phil Glass says:

      biggest of the year SO FAR, Sri. Cash has poured in from new investors, so let us live in hope there is more to come.

      1. MDS says:

        As far as I know Permane never said “so far”. To quote him:

        “There’s a new front wing, suspension profiles and suspension upgrades in addition to various other aero upgrades, which combine to give us what should be our biggest step forward of the year.”

  20. Quade says:

    Anyways, lets stop being moaning about the tyre test and move on.

    1. AlexD says:

      Why? This is much more interesting than racing….at least more important….you get bigger advantage there, so it is a very critical point to take into consideration. It would have been silly to ignore it while thinking about possible results.

      1. Quade says:

        Moaning won’t change facts even if Merc suddenly start trouncing the field by 5 secs per lap. Lets enjoy the racing like we did after we found that Red Bull had a flexi nose or that Ferrari ran with illegal fuel (Schumi) etc.

        F1 is about pushing the envelope till the seams are just about to give.

      2. Kingszito says:

        I think F1 fans have very short memories. We have lived through this scandals in F1 before, this won’t be any different. RedBull has had parts in their car deemed illegal before and were asked to remove it in the coming race (after winning races with it). I didn’t hear any fan complaining that they won the championship due to the illegal parts they used to win races. Mercedes winning Silverstone (if they can) won’t be any different.

      3. Tim says:

        If Merc do start to trounce the field by 5 seconds/lap then Horner would most likely spontaneously combust – here’s hoping ;-)

      4. Steve says:

        There was nothing remotely illegal about the Red Bull “flexi nose”.

        In fact no parts on a Red Bull car have ever been found to be illegal.

      5. Quade says:

        @Steve
        Haha! I agree with you, the FIA just has a way of asking Red Bull to remove parts of their car for no reason at all! Even when they are flexi noses, flexi floors, height adjustment devices etc. Bad bad FIA! Damn the FIA!! :)

      6. Bruce says:

        Time to move on.

  21. Grant H says:

    Come on Lewis home win pls!

  22. Get Well Soon Murray says:

    Vettel will have it by a distance. He’s up and running now. This track is taylor made for the Bulls. Lewis has the out and out lap speed but the tyres won’t last. Alonso will do well but he’ll be second (starting from 5th) ending up about 20 seconds behind by the end with Kimi in 3rd. Maybe Lewis can hold onto 4th if the Force Inda’s don’t come through too strongly.

    Button comes home in 13th.

    1. Yago says:

      You are understimating here Ferrari’s speed on fast corners. Wait and see. We will talk again after the race. ;)

      P.S.: If it is wet though, your scenario seems plausible.

    2. krischar says:

      @ Get well Soon Murray

      How you are so definitive that alonso will finish 20 seconds behind vettel. People here give far too much credit and applause to vettel for really nothing

      RBR will be the car to beat. Hope mark can repeat the “Not Bad for NO 2 Driver”

      As a True Alonso fan I look forward to see Fernando victory here

  23. Seifenkistler says:

    66places won
    42places lost
    =
    24 who didn’t finish?

    1. Ganesh says:

      And all drivers are included – Sum of position gained & lost should be zero… like newton’s law…

      let’s make one..

      The law of conservation of positions:
      Positions can be neither created nor destroyed. However, positions can flow from one driver to another. The total number positions of an isolated system remains the same!! ;)

      May be James has exclude drivers retiring in the first lap due to incidents.. technically, they should be counted as positions lost…

      1. Quade says:

        Funny stuff! …But true.

  24. Paul D says:

    Hard to see past Red Bull for this one.

  25. Thread the Needle says:

    I’m hoping for a exciting race, F1 could really do with it

  26. Bayden says:

    Webber is the only man who has stood on the podium at each of the past four events at Silverstone.

    I think anybody who doesn’t have him in at least the top three, and quite possibly ahead of Vettel, will be disappointed…

    1. Ganesh says:

      Statistics does say that – doesn’t it?

      However, this year the difference between Seb & Mark seems to be wider – atleast so far. let’s wait & watch

    2. Sasidharan says:

      Looking forward to web & mas (yellow camera bar cars) to do well. And they should sandwich between Alo & Vet for the championship to get interesting.

    3. Glennb says:

      +1
      Leaving Webber out of ones trifecta here is a dangerous move ;)

  27. Luke Clements says:

    Hoping MW out qualifies SV and makes it 3 British GPs…while both wear black helmets all weekend just for a pisstake of the secret test farce.

  28. Danno76 says:

    James,

    If Vettel does walk this one do you think it’s going to be detrimental to viewing figures for the rest of the season?

  29. A-P says:

    > The weather in England, even in summer,
    > is notoriously hard to predict. Last year
    > saw torrential rains spoil the weekend. It
    > could be warm and sunny, or cold and wet.
    > Currently it is warm and sunny in the UK.

    It is certainly a relief to have left winter far behind, perhaps even more so the bountiful rain, but it is *not* warm and sunny around Towcester! (or indeed much of elsewhere) It is cloudy with occasional bright spells, barely touching 20C some days and struggling to 15C on others … which is mild, not warm!

  30. Rich C says:

    Curious to know where on the track the power scheduling occurs…

  31. kal says:

    The circuit is missing a big character without bridge corner

  32. James, I wonder if you could add an approximate duration (in minutes) to your strategy guides? I plan my life around Grand Prix and, while it won’t be exact to the minute, it would be both helpful and interesting to know whether to expect a 1.5 hour race, or running right up to the full 2 hours. Red flag stoppages and rain delays omitted, of course! I can’t find this info on any other site, so it would be a simple addition which would make your guide even more useful.

LEAVE A COMMENT

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Top Tags
SEARCH Strategy
JA ON F1 In association with...
Download the chequered flag podcast today
Download the chequered flag podcast today
Multi award winning Formula One photographer
Multi award winning Formula One photographer