How the F1 teams will approach the Bahrain Grand Prix on track
Insight
Darren Heath
Strategy Briefing
Posted By: James Allen  |  18 Apr 2012   |  7:04 am GMT  |  100 comments

There are quite a few unknowns going into this race weekend. Sakhir circuit has been modified from the 2010 event, without the extra loop, which was added just for that event. This means the track is shorter by just under a kilometer and four braking zones have been removed. The last time this layout was used there was still refueling in F1, so the strategy for this year will be completely new.

With lots of corners following each other and a heavy car at the start of the race, Bahrain is one of the toughest circuits of the year on brakes, with four major stops per lap from over 300km/h.

The late April date means that the temperatures are likely to be very high, which will lead to increased tyre wear. Also making the picture pretty interesting is the fact that there was no race at Sakhir last season, so Pirelli has not raced there before. It did conduct some tyre testing on the track however, during the early stages of its 2011 development programme.

The track, being in a desert, is also at risk of being coated in fine sand and this can compromise grip levels.

When you’ve read all about the considerations the teams will go through when deciding their plans for the race, see if you can find the best strategy using our Race Strategy Calculator. Click here to use it. Race Strategy Calculator

Track characteristics

Sakhir Circuit; 5.41 kilometres. Race distance: 57 laps = 308.23 kilometres, 15 corners in total, mostly medium speed, with three long straights

Aerodynamic setup – Medium downforce. Top speed 322km/h (with Drag Reduction System on rear wing) – 310km/h without.

Full throttle – 50% of the lap. Total fuel needed for race distance: 150.8 kilos.

Time spent braking: 16% of the lap. 7 braking zones. Brake wear: High.

Loss time for a Pit stop = 18.6 seconds
Total time needed for pit stop: 22.6 seconds.

Fuel effect (cost in lap time per 10kg of fuel carried): 0.38 seconds (average/high). Fuel consumption: 2.6 kg/lap

Form Guide

The Bahrain Grand Prix is the fourth round of the 2012 FIA F1 World Championship.

The first two races of the season saw McLaren dominate in Australia, with Malaysia hard to draw many conclusions from due to changeable weather conditions, although Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso won the race from Sauber’s Sergio Perez. In China the Mercedes was fastest in qualifying and its race pace was strong enough to win the race in cool track conditions. McLaren has the fastest car in general, with Red Bull faster in the race than in qualifying.

As far as drivers’ form is concerned at Bahrain, Fernando Alonso has won the race three times, Felipe Massa twice while Jenson Button and Michael Schumacher have both won it once. Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel have never won in Bahrain. As far as teams are concerned, Ferrari has four wins from the seven races held at the venue since the 2004 inauguration.

Weather Forecast
The end of April is quite late for a Bahrain Grand Prix, which has generally been held in March or early April previously. The temperatures rise throughout the month and it is forecast to be around 33 degrees over the race weekend. With very dark asphalt the track temperature tends to be significantly higher, well into the 40 degree range with such ambient temperatures.

Likely tyre performance and other considerations

Pirelli tyre choice for Bahrain: Soft and Medium.

This race is likely to produce the highest track temperatures of the season so far and it will be a learning experience for the teams and for Pirelli as the Italian tyres have never raced at Bahrain before. They have tested there in up to 50 degrees temperature and feel they know it well enough.

The high temperature creates more movement in the tyre compound and this accelerates the tyre degradation.

The stable weather conditions in Bahrain are likely to mean that the practice sessions will give strong indications for race strategy, which hasn’t been possible in the previous races this season due to interruptions and rainy conditions.

The pattern which has emerged so far from the first three races is that hotter track conditions tend to suit the McLaren, Red Bull and Lotus, while cooler conditions play to the strengths of the Mercedes, Ferrari and the Sauber.

Number and likely timing of pit stops

Before any practice has been done on the circuit, Pirelli predicts three stops in the race. It will be the degradation in tyre performance, which will decide the pit stop strategy and this is likely to be dictated by the high track temperature and by the way the teams get their cars set up to cope with it. The rear tyres will go off first due to the number of traction events out of corners.

The teams may also be looking to manage their strategy differently, possibly looking to use the medium tyre more as a primary race tyre than the soft, possibly using it for two stints rather than one. This proved a winning ticket for Mercedes in China.

The front runners, who must start the race on their qualifying tyres, will be likely to start on used soft tyres as it is clearly the faster tyre for a qualifying lap.

The simulations show that the difference between the soft and medium tyres will be around 0.6 seconds per lap, although this will come right down in the race and that the life of the soft tyre will be 18 laps, with 22 laps the longest the medium tyre will last.

Our own analysis, using the Race Strategy Calculator shows that a two stop strategy with stops on laps 18 and 37 for new medium tyres looks like a good default strategy. Saving a set of new soft tyres looks like it has some advantages too. See if you can find a better strategy.

Chance of a safety car

The chance of a safety car at the Sakhir circuit is low, due to the vast expanse of run off areas around the circuit. There was a safety car in the 2007 race to clear away on track debris, but otherwise the races have been fairly clear.

Recent start performance of drivers

Starts are crucial in race strategy and can make or compromise a race. In China we saw Kobayashi, who had been the best starter in the first two races, lose 4 places off the grid. Webber lost 3 places, as did Vettel, while Button, Hamilton, Perez, Kovalainen and Massa gained 2 places. Webber is already back at the bottom of the table, where he finished last season.

Glock, Kovalainen, Massa and Alonso are consistently good starters who gain places off the line at most races.
As far as 2012 start performance is concerned drivers have gained (+) or lost (-) places off the start line this season, on aggregate, as follows –

Gained:

+12 Kovalainen
+10 Massa, Perez

+9 Glock
+8 Alonso
+7 Kobayashi
+6 Raikkonen
+4 Pic, Di Resta
+3 Rosberg, Button, Maldonado

+2 Hulkenberg, Senna
+1 Hamilton, Schumacher*, Karthikeyan

Held position:
Petrov

Lost:
-1 Vettel, Vergne, De la Rosa
-2 
Grosjean**
-3 Ricciardo,
- 6 Webber
* Senna, Ricciardo and Hulkenberg were all involved in accidents on 1st lap in Australia
** Schumacher and Grosjean collided on Lap 1 in Malaysia, Senna and Perez pitted for wet tyres on opening lap

Pit Stop League Table

Of course good strategy planning also requires good pit stop execution by the mechanics and we have seen tyre stops carried out in less than two and a half seconds by F1 teams. It is clear that the field has significantly closed up in this area, as well as on track performance, with 8 teams within 1.1 seconds of each other – much closer than last season.

The league table below shows the order of the pit crews based on their fastest time in the Chinese Grand Prix, from the car entering the pit lane to leaving it. The 2011 league table positions are in brackets.

Worth noting is that Ferrari again had not only the fastest time outright, but the most consistent. All four stops were under 20.2 seconds, far quicker than any other team. They have improved a lot in this area.

1. Ferrari 20.024s (5)

2. McLaren 20.177s (3)

3. Red Bull 20.377s (1=)

4. Force India 20.387 (4)

5. Mercedes 20.645 (1=)
6. Sauber 21.012 (8=)
7= Lotus 21.184 (6)
7= 
Williams 21.184 (7)

9. Marussia 21.327 (11)
10. Caterham 21.851 (8=)
11. Toro Rosso 21.884 (8=)
12 HRT 23.151 (12)

Now you’ve read all about the considerations the teams will go through when deciding their plans for the race, see if you can find the best strategy using our Race Strategy Calculator? Click here to use it. Race Strategy Calculator

The UBS Race Strategy Briefing is written by James Allen with input and data from several of the F1 team strategists and from Pirelli

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100 Comments
  1. vvipkho says:

    Pirelli tyres 1st time use in Bahrain GP..

    1. KGBVD says:

      Pirelli tested their Toyota in Bahrain, so it’s the first time raced, not first time used.

      1. vvipkho says:

        Bahrain @pirelli_media tyre choice same as China: soft (option) & medium (prime). They tested here 2 years ago but don’t have too much data

  2. Nigel says:

    “using the Race Strategy Calculator shows that a two stop strategy with stops on laps 18 and 37 for new medium tyres will be hard to beat.”

    Actually, the calculator shows that saving a set of new options makes it relatively easy to beat>
    Three stops with lap 14 new prime; 29 new prime; 44 new option is quite a bit faster, and even a two stop race using a set of new options rather then one of the sets of primes is slightly faster.
    One the three stop strategy, you could stop as early as lap 12 and maintain a winning pace if tactics require it.

    It’s interesting that in China, the prime was actually faster than the option for some teams like Mercedes (Rosberg had a new set of options which he didn’t use in the race).
    The strategy calculator didn’t (and doesn’t for Bahrain) show this – nor does it show any great endurance advantage for the prime, with a two stopper using one set of new options being faster.

    I still think the smartest qualifying strategy is to run only once in each qualifying session if you can manage it. Although grid position is essential, the difference between pole and second isn’t worth sacrificing an extra set of new tyres, IMO.
    Hamilton in particular ought to try this, as he has the ability to do a single fast run – and none of his second efforts in Q3 this year have benefitted him.

    1. TJS says:

      with the field so close this year it’s going to be difficult to be economical with tyres in qualifying. instead, i think we’re going to see more drivers using options in Q1 and doing second runs in Q2 and Q3. this could mean more usage of the prime tyre in the races as those will be the freshest tyres left… i’d also say that pole is more important than ever as leading from the start makes tyre management easier.

    2. Quattro_T says:

      “Although grid position is essential, the difference between pole and second isn’t worth sacrificing an extra set of new tyres, IMO.”

      I guess that assumes you either have the required top speed to pass on track, or is able to undercut the car in front of you in the pitstops.
      In China it was obvious that teams who opted for aggressive 3 stop strategies were compromised in the race due to being stuck in traffic.

  3. Gavin Thomas says:

    Race 4 and no further comments on ugly noses, excepting my motor racing hating family who have developed an interest in naming the cars based on their new appearance. So far we have:
    Ferrari – Postman Pats Van
    McLaren – de Gaulle
    Red Bull – MGC
    Sauber – Eskimo Pie
    Williams – Sydney (named after the opera house)
    Caterham – Packers (green bay)
    Mercedes – Spoonbill

    1. Bluefroggle says:

      The noses remind me of Michael Jackson after all his cosmetic surgeries on his nose.

    2. Nick says:

      I think these cars look really good, far better than the shark fins from a couple of years back.

  4. Paul Barrass says:

    Off Topic I know, but I still think the noses are fine compared to the tiny wee wings at the rear. There have been some beautiful cars over the last few years, but those wings really spoil the overall effect for me.

    Anyway, on topic, great briefing again James. Kudos.

    1. jonnyd says:

      there is nothing worse than the big front wings – they look completely out of proportion to the rest of the car – more so than the rear wings.
      they hardly impacted on making the racing closer (which is the only reason they were brought in, to give the following car more downforce…didn’t work at all).

      they only serve to make the racing worse, by making wheel to wheel racing through a corner very risky, because its so easy to knock the front wing off, due to the size of them.

      they need to be changed immediately back to how they were in the past.

      that will never happen of course because f1 has nothing to do with racing or fans.

      1. rgvkiwi says:

        I agree on the wings comment. Something I had overlooked in all the new fuss. Well poitned out.

        How hard must it be for a driver to position his car in wheel to wheel with those bloody great things out the front AND all the little delicate extras. Reward for close racing is overshadowed by the massive performance loss if you lose some of those bits……get rid of them.

        However I also agree about your final comment, I would love to call it cynical but we all know the truth. Fans and spectators are the duped masses in this game….but still we follow :)

      2. tom in adelaide says:

        Hmmm I’m not so sure the fans are getting duped. My F1 consumption comes at the cost of exactly $0. I think I’m getting a pretty good deal!

      3. MISTER says:

        I’ve just see some old videos where the F1 cars had no front wing at all. I was surprised because I always thought they has even a tiny wing. I guess back in those days nobody was talking about cars being on “rails”.
        I can just imagine how much they were sliding around and how much work a driver had to do.

        This makes me think is not fair to compare those drivers with what we have today. I’m not saying todays drivers are less talented, but for sure their job is much easier having so much downforce compared to those days.

        To be honest I don’t really care how big the front wings are, I just want less dependance on aero in F1. I wish the teams will be allowed to develop on all areas on a car: aero, engine, etc.

        The engine is the heart of a car. Put a fuel consumption limit on it and then let the engineers play with the engines to extract as much power as they can with a given fuel consumption. Why should the aero guys take all the credit for a car?

    2. KGBVD says:

      I agree 100%, the noses are fine (although for some reason I find the Ferrari’s schnoz particularly offensive), but the silly rinky-dink rear wings are awful.

      They should have gone with the CDG (centreline downwash generating) wings, kind of like what’s on the Zondas. At least then the cars wouldn’t look out of proportion.

      1. Liam in Sydney says:

        A simple rule that stipulates the maximum width of any part of the cars bodywork forward of the leading surface of the front tyres would work. Then you could chop out 5cm off each side, still giving you pretty good downforce but still letting the cars run that bit closer when battling.

      2. Andrew Carter says:

        You’ve got to be kidding, those things looked horrible, and wouldn’t have worked anyway since the wings would have been right behind the rear wheels, cutting down their air flow to a minimum and what they do get would have been turbulant anyway.

        The nose still look terible, they really need to be changed. I have no problem with the wide front wing, which clearly hasnt had an effect on wheel to wheel racing, or the narrow rear wing, which took a few races to get used to but I quickly got used to them.

  5. Chris Chong says:

    I eagerly await the companion article:
    “How the F1 teams will approach the Bahrain Grand Prix OFF the track.”

    I hear military escorts, fireproof overalls, riot shields and bullet-proof vests will be somewhat popular.

    On a more serious note, I hope that all involved in F1 will be safe whilst in Bahrain. The same goes for the protesters – I do hope that there won’t be any unfortunate incidents.

  6. sumedh says:

    James,

    In this calculator, we are supposed to get the red line to be below the grey line or above the grey line? I mean, the lower on the graph, the better or the higher in the graph, the better?

    1. James Allen says:

      Get your line to be above the default and you are faster

      1. Pete says:

        @james

        off-topic

        could you please say something about the Concorde Agreement

        Ecclestone just slammed MERCEDES, saying their contribution to F1 had been small,…

        http://www.spiegel.de/sport/formel1/0,1518,828315,00.html

        ———-

        also

        Marko and Newey seem to think Ecclestone’s new rules for this season were specifically targeted at Red Bull

        ——-

        there is also talk of Ecclestone wanting to upgrade certain races, a bit like in Tennis

        where the Grand Slams count more in terms of points won and prize money

        ——–

        any thoughts/additional info ?

        thanks

      2. rgvkiwi says:

        standard Bernie grandstanding to take newspaper colunms away from the bahrain saga….

        Don’t fall for it…

      3. Quattro_T says:

        Hmm, was not the RB implementation of the EBD deemed to be breaking the spirit of the rules (movable parts/engine gases affecting the downforce of the car), already in Silverstone 2012? And the official reason teams agreed to not “remove” EBD mid-season, was that Renault was afraid their engine would not be reliable without it?

        Also even if Marko is right, I think this would not be the first time FIA steps in and changes regulations to stop dominance. If the case here, RB should be happy rules were not changed mid-season with no possibilities to test new parts/solutions due to no inseason testing allowed – a situation Renault had to face in 2006 when mass-dampers got banned mid-season in a very strange/unexpected move by the FIA.

  7. fastpete says:

    Maybe a silly question…but if the ambient track temp is high, and the surface is abrasive, would Pirelli not be better offering up the medium and hard compounds? Or is it a compromise to allow for the likely loss of grip due to the fine sand?

  8. gondokmg says:

    James, your strategy does not work for drivers taking part and setting times in Q3, assumuing as you say the life of the soft tyre is 18 laps max.

    For those drivers who have already done 3 laps on those tyres in qualfying, the furthest they can go in the first stint of the race is lap 15 or 16 at best, if leading the race and less if following behind another car.

    1. James Allen says:

      Yes, this is more of a strategy for cars outside top 10 on a new set, but if you can get them to last, it looks good. Quite a few drivers have managed to get the extra laps out of the tyres in opening stints this season

  9. mnfformula1 says:

    Thanks for this. Very informative as usual.
    Can you clarify this please.
    The rear tyres will go off first due to the number of traction events out of corners.

    What is traction event?

    1. James Allen says:

      A moment when you floor the throttle out of a corner and the wheels spin

      1. Dan says:

        Wouldn’t that be a non-traction event ;)

    2. Sam says:

      High Braking

      1. Alex W says:

        No, High braking effects the fronts more, not the rears.

    3. Matt Clayton says:

      when you see big black marks left on the road from the tires either when braking (smoke cloud) or when accelerating (11′s)

  10. Dan says:

    Would you say that Hamilton’s frequent ability to extract the maximum from the car (and therefore presumably the tyres) over a single lap means that he will have taken significantly more life from his tyres on the qualifying lap than Button who tends to qualify slower? For the purposes of this question I am assuming that neither of them had any other tyre damaging incidents during the lap such as a lockup or lairy slides.

    1. gondokmg says:

      In China, Hamilton used the same tyres in Q2 and the first run in Q3, which due to the cooling in track temperatures turned out to be the fastest lap in Q3. As such, at the start of the race, Lewis’ tyres were already 3 laps older compared to the others which explains why he was pittinbg first relative to the others.

      I am sure Lewis will have an easier job with his tyres if he puts it on pole and leads from the front in clear air. Fingers crossed, it will happen this weekend.

      1. Dan says:

        That slightly misses my point which was that if all other things were equal, i.e. just one run on new options in q3 and then use them in the race, would a driver that qualifies faster because he gets more out of tyres then disadvantage themselves in the race because they had taken more life out of the tyres? Or is the difference negligible?

  11. Dan says:

    Just looked at the strategy calculator. There seems to be no indication of which tyres and condition you are starting on or whether you can select this. Apologies if this has been asked before or I have missed an obvious explanation in the text.

    1. James Allen says:

      It presumes you start on used softs like top 10 must do

      1. Dan says:

        Unless they don’t run in Q3?

  12. CarlH says:

    Hi James,

    What do you think the chances are of somebody getting into Q3 and then starting the race on primes?

    I’m thinking of someone like Alonso who will probably qualify no higher than 8th/9th anyway. Might be worth a shot?

    1. James Allen says:

      We have to wait until after FP2 to know how prime performs relative to option

    2. Nigel says:

      Or not setting a time at all in Q3, and starting on new options.

      I believe Grosjean did this in China ?

  13. Dan says:

    With the gap between option/prime being blurred as to which is the better race tyre are teams having to think a bit more on Saturday about whether they might need to save a set of new Primes?

    Last year it was always about trying to save a new set of options for the race. Might we see teams trying to save an extra set of primes this year?

    Ideal Saturday strategy (for top 10 team)
    Q1 – 1 set of primes
    Q2 – 1 set of options
    Q3 – 1/2 set of options (start race on these)

    Leaving 2 new primes and 1/2 new options to cover a 2/3 stop race.

    1. Dan says:

      Sorry what I didn’t articulate very well was that it’s no longer necessary to try and gamble on getting through Q2 using only prime tyre as the prime tyre is just as valuable for race day as the option.

      so if anything it makes qualifying strategy a bit less of a headache.

  14. Methusalem says:

    James, as the Middle East is in our daily news, is the Bahrain GP now an advertisement for Bahrain or the F1 Sport?

  15. AussieWoZ says:

    Great preview James! As always.

    Just a shame that Australian viewers have had their live F1 viewing rights revoked for the rest of the 2012 season as of today :(

    Dark days down under …

    1. dylan says:

      where did you hear that? the race is being shown live on channel 10 this weekend?

      1. Alex R says:

        Correct, Chan 10 is pulling the HD feed, not the whole broadcast.

        Does seem that we might lose the live feed when races return closer to out timezone

        source:
        http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/ten-causes-outrage-with-f1-move/story-e6frg996-1226332816613

    2. tom in adelaide says:

      WHAT??

    3. Chris Borg says:

      +1

    4. Ade says:

      Look on the bright side – you’ve still got your highly entertaining and ever evolving V8 Supercar series to enjoy.

      What’s the scoop with the loss of live F1 TV though down there?

      1. bphrea says:

        Correction required: V8 Supercar series is not entertaining nor evolving…

    5. Alex says:

      please elaborate/ provide sources. i live in perth

      1. Liam says:

        Channel 10 will be showing European races live AEST, and will be delayed into SA, WA and NT due to the time zones. Each race will start at 10pm in that time zone; therefore, each race will not be live except those on AEST.

        Furthermore, we have lost our HD coverage and only getting SD coverage.

        JAMES – please tell me your view on this seeing as you do work for TEN.

      2. James Allen says:

        From what I hear the move means that F1 will reach a bigger audience than ever, so from that side it’s good.

      3. tylerzaath says:

        Channel 10 are probably thinking they can do this and not lose any viewers. Do fans such as us have no alternative and still watch anyway?

        The race for me in WA will be delayed by 2 hours. I would have to avoid TV (popup news bulletins/updates etc) and the internet (obviously) for 2 hours on my bloody weekend!

        Instead I’ll be jumping online to view a live broadcast. I pay a full subscription to foxtel monthly, bought myself a HD TV but I still have no legal avenue to view a live broadcast (let alone a HD broadcast) of what is supposedly one of the biggest sports viewer-wise in the world.

        Very disappointing and such a shame as the 3 Australian hosts do such a great job. They’re down to earth, yet you can still see their passion behind the sport……

      4. Liam says:

        Thanks, James. I have to say, though, that it isn’t exactly going to reach much bigger an audience as the majority of the nation has access to ONE anyway.
        This move disadvantages many fans who will not get to watch the race live. Surely you can agree that the sport must be watched live to fully feel the excitement the sport has to offer. Theres nothing like sitting with live-timing on the app/website to the side whilst the race is unfolding in front of you.
        What this will do is push away many viewers to online streaming obtained in a way which may not be legal.

        The logical step would either leave it live on the main channel (as it will still be in primetime in all markets), or show it live on One for the disadvantaged states.

    6. Msta says:

      What’s this all about? What are the details?

    7. Ryan Eckford says:

      Qualifying(ONE) and Race(TEN) live in New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria and Tasmania. Qualifying live in South Australia and Western Australia. Race delayed in South Australia and Western Australia.

      I am pretty sure about these details.

    8. AussieWoZ says:

      http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/ten-causes-outrage-with-f1-move/story-e6frg996-1226332816613

      Article from The Australian explains it nicely.

      I’ve no doubt F1 will be on the Foxtel network next year.
      (pay TV for those who don’t know)

      RPM has also been canned. These guys have hosted the F1 shows and done a great job. Very sad …

      1. horoldo says:

        Delayed into SA now. Terrific. Have just wasted money on new F1 Live timing App to follow live coverage better. NOT HAPPY TEN!!!!

      2. Tom in adelaide says:

        Me too…. :(

        James, I appreciate your attempt to put this in a positive light, but really it is a massive step backwards for us Australians. Channel 10 only broadcasts in SD.

        Personally, i’ll be switching to live online coverage. Bad move channel 10.

    9. N says:

      Cannot remember, but did they advertise to show all the races live (on ONE) before the season started? If so, then what happened to that (can it be called a promise?)?

      1. Liam says:

        Yes, they did promise all races live and in HD on ONE.

        In this afternoon’s qualifying, they were advertising tomorrow’s race time as ‘live’. Now for someone living in SA like myself, that would be false advertising.

      2. N says:

        Yep, that’s what I was wandering about (the false advertising bit). I’m in WA, and I think they had qualification announced at 8.30pm on ONE today, so I was thinking of watching it (since I thought at least the qualifying was going to be live). Then I suddenly noticed on my browser that the qualification is on (Ten’s live online-stream). Well, at least can watch it live on internet hopefully (if Channel 10 doesn’t restrict that also…you never know having seen what they are capable of).
        I was just wandering if there would (hypothetically) be anything ACCC could do about it, if they didn’t tell truth to the customers about their product…

      3. N says:

        …”Then I suddenly noticed on my browser that the qualification is on”…it was between 7 and 8 pm.

  16. Matthew Yau says:

    Hi James, it’d be great if you could get a layout of the track and refer/annotate it. This way, the track characteristics would be more apparent without having to flick between sites.

  17. Stephen Hughes says:

    I’m wondering, does the aero setup affect tyre wear significantly? I would suspect there would be some effect, so would the strategy calculator not be more accurate if you could also adjust the aero setup of the car? Or would that be far too complicated in terms of the maths needed?

  18. Nil says:

    Here’s a three stopper which came out ahead by about 15 seconds of the default for those in the top 10: start on used options and stop on lap 13 for options, stop on lap 26 for primes, stop on lap 43 for options until the end of the race.

  19. Simmo says:

    from what data I have got it looks like 3 stops are better than 2 here.

  20. franed says:

    Still Merc has no signed the Concorde Agreement, according to Speed tv, Bernie is making ridiculous proposals again, like teams can buy last years cars from other teams and some races may be worth more points. But the agreement is secret. Why not just have all the rules secret Bernie, half seem to be already? Then race in secret too. Then we don’t need to bother any more!

  21. Dan Orsino says:

    James, am I right to say overtaking is not esp easy here, and the 3 longish straights are not long enough as in china for example?
    Precise braking and tyre management point to Button, Alonso and Raikkonen, rather than Vittel and Hamilton.

    Also do you think Webber is on a roll at present mo?

    1. Dan Orsino says:

      I know some will reckon KR’s experience in china puts him out of the tyre management trio, but I think the team did reckon that Kimi could attempt the impossible and stay on wasted tyres another dozen laps…

    2. James Allen says:

      We’ve seen plenty of passing into T1 and will do this year too.

      Webber is doing ok, like Hamilton, consistent with 3x P4. He loses out at starts though

      1. Trent says:

        Why IS that? Webber seems to have had very bad starts for the past 2 years at least. It’s such a major influence on Red Bulls results – are they any close to identifying and rectifying this problem?

  22. Paul J says:

    Disappointing to see that Williams are only joint 7th fastest in their pitstops, after making such a big deal about the Michael Johnson tie up. That’s not really worked out well, has it?

  23. Prateek says:

    Optimal (but realistic) strategy according to the strategy calculator:

    Stop 1 on lap 14 for new primes
    Stop 2 on lap 28 for new primes
    Stop 3 on lap 43 for new options

    Overall about 13 seconds faster than the default strategy.

    1. Matt Clayton says:

      Highly unlikely that any team will have 3 sets of new tyres

      1. Nigel says:

        Rosberg had three new sets in China, I think – though he only used two in the race.

        It’s difficult, but ‘highly unlikely’ is a slight exaggeration.

      2. Quattro_T says:

        If you manage to only use 1x primes in Q1, 1x options in Q2 and 1x options in Q3 – wont that leave you with 2x new primes and 1x new options for the race? Unrealistic? The Mclarens?

        Other (no so competetive) teams, should be able to save a set (or two) in Q3 as well, by not running. Was thinking about Ferrari, Renault, Sauber…

    2. Nigel says:

      That does indeed seem to be the optimal strategy.

      Stopping a on lap 12 is not a great deal slower, and in some circumstances could gain track position, so the leader will have to watch out for undercut attempts on the first and subsequent pitstops.

      I don’t expect many drivers will manage to save three new sets of tyres for the race, but for those with the ability to go fast on their first qualifying attempt, it’s a good strategy – especially since two-stopping is riskier in the heat of Bahrain.

  24. Charan says:

    James,

    I hope the race runs smoothly this weekend, although I fear that it won’t. F1 probably shouldn’t be in Bahrain this weekend, but nonetheless your there. Your readers will surely look forward to reading your thoughtful reports this weekend. At a personal level, you and most of the team personal I’m sure would probably have preferred to skip this weekend, but as a BBC reported you have a professional obligation to report the news. Good luck and stay safe.

    1. Ed says:

      Big +1 from Me!

      Good luck James and the team, stay safe…

  25. Chris Borg says:

    4 stop strategy marginally better than 2 stop default. It is possible but requires one set of saved primes though.

    Should the primes work better at the end of the race relative to the start? less fuel load, more rubber down on the track?

    James, want to let Webber know, he likes to stop early and power through at the end :)

    Stop 1 on lap 9 for used options
    Stop 2 on lap 20 for new options
    Stop 3 on lap 34 for used options
    Stop 4 on lap 45 for new primes

    1. Stephen Hughes says:

      I think the one thing this calculator misses – and can’t easily feature – is that it assumes you are the only car on the track. You can get sequences faster but you generally end up falling behind the ‘default’ at some point.

      The calculator doesn’t take in to account the fact you would almost certainly be held up behind any cars following this pattern of stops, never mind any other traffic, so you wouldn’t make the lap times it estimates and would also have increased tyre wear trying to pass the slower traffic.

      Even just assuming two cars, your strategy would result in you behind held up behind James just before your third stop and would also mean you would have to pass him in the dying laps of the race, although the previous delay would probably mean you’d not quite catch him before the end.

      It’s a fun tool and I suppose if you think about it carefully shows just how hard it is to be an F1 strategist!

      1. James Allen says:

        That’s the idea, it’s to give people a chance to get closer to the sport

  26. Ryan Eckford says:

    My preferred strategy is a 3 stop strategy.

    Start: Options(used)
    Stop 1 on Lap 14 for used options
    Stop 2 on Lap 28 for new primes
    Stop 3 on Lap 42 for new primes

    It is about 4 seconds quicker than a 2 stop race.

    1. Nigel says:

      If you save the used options for the third stint, it’s about 8 seconds quicker.

  27. Sossoliso says:

    James on a different note.. “Would it be legal for McLaren to re-introduce the F-Duct they had last year as long as it became transient to DRS system folowing the Mercedes Ruling?”, i.e. the F-Duct get activated not by driver movement but by DRS being activated.

    1. James Allen says:

      You don’t need it now on rear wing as that’s the job DRS does anyway, to shed drag

  28. Tom says:

    James, you have shown how many places people lost or gained from their grid position. At what point is this measured, is it after the first lap or taken from the final result of the race?

    1. James Allen says:

      We do it from the end of first lap

      1. Phil C says:

        I do think you should point out that Lewis has started from pole twice, so in that situation, it’s impossible for him to make up places – the same as Rosberg in China.

        Those at the back have more cars to overtake after all!

  29. Stephen Hughes says:

    A three-stopper with to new options on 13, used options on 32 and new primes on 45 has potential.

    You will be catching the two-stoppers just before their final stop so they won’t delay you too much and while you will have to pass them in the final stint, you will have much fresher tyres and you’ll catch them just as theirs start going off.

  30. Craig says:

    Hi James,

    will the RPM hosts continue on channel 10?

    Iv’e been watching F1 for over 30 yr’s now, ever since I was a small child when it was projected upside down on the ceiling of my bedroom courtesy
    of a hole in my bedroom door and a well place tv set in the living room. Parents never figured out why I always looked so tired on Monday mornings.

    I always enjoyed the coverage and the team’s that hosted the show threw the decades.

    1. James Allen says:

      Yes they will continue.

      That’s quite an image you give us there!

      1. Craig says:

        Too much???
        Sorry

  31. Richard Le Tessier says:

    Great site James, & love the strategy simulator. I always go to new primes at the 1st stop while the car’s heavy, and it’s interesting to see what it does to race time when you don’t need to worry about track position.

    My 2 stop strategy bettered your computer’s by ~ 4 seconds. My 3 stop was a further 8 seconds quicker – but I had to overtake the computer twice. It would be interesting to see what would happen in a real race.

    Love visiting the site. It’s also great to see an F1 driver that went to the same High School that I did – Go Daniel Ricciardo!

  32. Matt Clayton says:

    James,
    Mark mentioned that he broke the seat in his car during the china round. If it has damaged any other components what would he be able to replace without penalty?
    I suspect although he has a good chance of a great result perhaps more damage than i thought may have occurred to his car and might bring him back down into the pack..

  33. A couple of strategies improving the standard 2 stop strategy here. One is a 2 stopper and the other 3 stops with no new option tyres…http://bit.ly/HMAHXR

    I am sure the race will have a lot more elements to take into account and enjoy!!! cant wait

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