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Here’s the maths on Vettel becoming champion in Singapore
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Darren Heath
Posted By: James Allen  |  24 Sep 2011   |  8:21 pm GMT  |  17 comments

Many readers will be wanting to know the mathematical situation going into tomorrow’s Singapore Grand Prix with regard to Sebastian Vettel clinching the championship.

As I said in my qualifying post, Vettel has been untouchable all weekend in qualifying and race pace and only a misfortune of some kind will rob him of victory tomorrow. He easily has the pace to win.

Thanks to Sean Kelly, who goes by the soubriquet of Virtual Statman and is the stats guy for many of the TV companies working in F1, here are the permutations which will clinch it in Singapore.

If Vettel wins:
Alonso needs to be off the podium
AND
Webber/Button finish no higher than 3rd
Hamilton is automatically eliminated
(This scenario happened in Australia and Spain this year)

If Vettel is 2nd:
Alonso needs to be no higher than 8th
AND
Webber/Button need to be no higher than 5th
AND
Hamilton must not finish ahead of him
(This scenario has not happened at all this season)

If Vettel is 3rd:
Alonso needs to be no higher than 9th
AND
Webber/Button need to be no higher than 7th
AND
Hamilton must not finish ahead of him
(This scenario has not happened at all this season)

If Vettel is 4th:
The title cannot be decided in Singapore

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17 Comments
  1. celeste says:

    So needs to win… I´m not betting in him doing it this race… Japan will be a great place to win the championship…

  2. AlexD says:

    I think he will do it….he is so focused, no mistakes from red bull all year. They are atacking…going for it….just cant really believe what i see this year. Complete domination…similar to 2002 and 2004

  3. Jack says:

    very helpfull, cheers James. Although you do kind of hope we don’t have to use it!

  4. Carlos E Del Valle says:

    As a matter of fact, the only plausible combination is Vet-Ham-Web or Vet-Ham-But. All the others look quite difficult…

    1. Steve Rogers says:

      So we’re probably watching Webber v. Button :-)

  5. Douglas says:

    It’s sort of a foregone conclusion isn’t it? After this race or the next, the focus will switch to “who will be runner-up”.

    BTW, it was nice to hear DC making an attempt to pronounce Vettle properly during quali.

    1. Grabyrdy says:

      But we presume DC talks to him quite a lot in the RB context. Seems unlikely he doesn’t know how to pronounce his name. Is he now anglicising it to keep the TV audience sweet ?

  6. jf says:

    No question, Vettel has it. Poor Whitmarsh must be choking in his Crash Kid quote considering Hamiltons abilty to wreck cars. Button is my revelation for the year. The man is a great racer, forget the gentle on the tires bit, he is has been doing really well.

    1. Jack says:

      +1, revelation is exactly the right word for Button this season

  7. prad says:

    I am quite sure it cant happen in Singapore its tough to keep alonso out of the podium here he is undefeated in Singapore but sure he can wrap it up in Japan!

  8. Aaron says:

    I think Vettel will win the race but not the title in Singapore. It seems very unlikely that all three of Webber, Alonso and Button will finish off the podium.

  9. F1Fan4Life says:

    James, a good article. In most years the stats are interesting, but are they really interesting this year? It’s inevitable. Who cares if he wins it here or at the next race. It seems like everyone is jumping on the Vettel bandwagon, but I think this is actually a poor year for F1 in general, because its one driver running away with it (and spare me the Vettel praise, this isn’t just driving skill). I introduced a couple of friends to F1 this year, and this was an absolute sticking point for them. I almost want him to win it now so there are no more talk on how he can statistically win it at the next race. What a cliffhanger :P Time to start imagining the battle for 2nd place is the actual championship…

  10. JohnBt says:

    Come to think of it, it’s going to be real tough to wrap it up in Singapore. As James mention Ferrari has good race pace.
    Webber and Button in the mix makes it harder.

    Looking forward to a whopper on Sunday.

    James, I suspect many of your bloggers are at the track, so little postings from past few articles.

  11. Robin says:

    If Vettel does win, the naysayers will say, “he can only clinch the world championship at night”

    Robin

  12. Al says:

    Who cares ?

    Red bull have had such a car advantage this year, Webber has been a Number 3 driver, not even a Number 2, the WDC was Vettels on a plate.

    He has driven exceptionally well, but he has had the car, and comfortable strategies to do it at a saunter conpared to the others.

  13. Jonathan says:

    Basically, here is the podium Vettel needs:

    1. Vettel
    2. Anyone other than Webber, Button or Alonso.
    3. Anyone other than Alonso.

    So, for example, a podium of Vettel/Hamilton/Webber would win him the title.

  14. news says:

    He was never afraid to request help with how to boost his writing and delivery on-air. Banks don’t operate as lone entities; they operate off of the funds of these customers and clients.

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