And how close will the field be?

There was hardly anything over a second spliiting the field last season at Spa. Some years ago, some tenths would have meant 4 or 5 positions on the grid, now it lead to being pushed back 4 or 5 rows. If somehow things remains as close as they were, we might end up with the same picture from the second semester last season, the pecking ordered was a new one each race. People could hardly tell who was who from Turkey onwards.

Anyhow, if there was anyone who could have learned a lot last season, that was Hamilton. Provided the car is good enough and he keeps in mind how important it is to not commit mistakes, he’s the title favourite.

My only suggestion at this stage would be to consider that last season was every unusual in that the regulations were massively different from preceding years. There was always the chance that someone would come up with a very clever solution to the changes, and they did. Three teams stole a march by coming up with the double deck diffuser and Red Bull came up with very quick car, despite not having thought of the DDD. Williams and Toyota, with the best will in the world, where never going to be able to win a Championship. One has forgotten how to win and the other hadn’t ever done it. That left Brawn vs. Red Bull, or Brawn vs. Newey, the two smartest cookies on the block, to fight it out.

This season the changes are not so big. The other teams will have learned from Newey’s design and will now all have well worked out DDD’s. The scope to pull a rabbit out of the hat has diminished. Budgets are being squeezed, so the ability to buy the title is not as big as it used to be. Engine designs are frozen and everyone has the same tyres. Refuelling is banned so even the brain power behind clever race strategies will be greatly reduced. It is hard to see who could have an edge at this stage unless you consider people as the most likely thing to make a difference, and people are funny things. They generally don’t like change and thrive in their ‘own’ environment. Effective change takes time.

As such, those teams and drivers that have managed to keep their key personnel in place should have an advantage. Continuity could be the key to finding the winner of this year’s Championship. That suggests that Hamilton, Vettel, Webber and Massa are the most likely contenders for the Drivers, and Red Bull for the Constructors. Webber struggled to handle Vettel last year and Vettel now has his feet under the table. Massa should be OK after his accident, but missing half a season is not ideal and putting up with Alonso will drive him nuts. Hamilton and Vettel will be my favourites, at least until we see any real hints from next month’s testing.